China's overall trade with Central Asia grew 6.5 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2026, increasing from $49.70 billion to $52.94 billion, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs. The trade balance tilted heavily in Beijing's favor by approximately a 2-to-1 margin, with Chinese exports reaching $34.94 billion against $18 billion in imports from the region. The continued expansion reflects Beijing's sustained push under the Belt and Road Initiative to deepen commercial ties with a region it regards as both a critical overland corridor to European markets and a key source of energy and mineral resources.

The aggregate figures, however, mask sharply divergent trajectories among the five Central Asian republics. Trade with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan posted robust gains, while commerce with Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan declined.

Uzbekistan Leads Regional Growth

Uzbekistan recorded the strongest trade expansion in the region, boosting commerce with China by 31 percent — from $6.75 billion in the first half of 2025 to $8.87 billion in the same period this year. The growth tracks with Tashkent's broader economic opening under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, whose government has pursued trade liberalization and foreign investment attraction since 2016. The trade balance, however, was heavily skewed toward China. Chinese exports to Uzbekistan rose from $5.96 billion to $7.65 billion, while imports from Uzbekistan grew from $797 million to $1.22 billion.

Kazakhstan Sees Surging Chinese Imports

Kazakhstan followed close behind with 25 percent year-on-year growth, increasing bilateral trade from $21.8 billion to $27.2 billion. Unlike Uzbekistan's lopsided balance, Kazakhstan's trade with China was comparatively more even. Chinese exports to Kazakhstan grew modestly from $14 billion to $14.98 billion, while Chinese imports from Kazakhstan surged from $7.79 billion to $12.22 billion. Kazakhstan is China's largest trading partner in Central Asia and a major supplier of crude oil, uranium, and industrial metals.

Tajikistan Posts Steady Gains

Tajikistan's trade with China rose 15 percent, from $2.04 billion to $2.35 billion. As with Uzbekistan, China sold substantially more than it purchased: exports to Tajikistan grew from $1.78 billion to $1.91 billion, while imports increased from $263 million to $444 million.

Kyrgyzstan Sees Dramatic, Unexplained Decline

Kyrgyzstan experienced a sharp and unexplained contraction in bilateral commerce. Total turnover fell from $14.25 billion in the first half of 2025 to $9.7 billion in the same period this year. Kyrgyz exports to China collapsed from $3.89 billion to just $75 million, while imports from China declined from $10.36 billion to $9.63 billion.

Neither Kyrgyz nor Chinese authorities have explained what types of goods drove Kyrgyz exports to surge from tens of millions of dollars in 2023 to billions in 2024 and 2025 — or why they have now fallen back sharply. Kyrgyzstan has been accused of serving as a major transit hub for funneling sanctioned goods to Russia. Analysts speculate that the extreme fluctuation in exports may be linked to Russia's in-kind payments — potentially in gold or other valuable commodities — for sanctioned goods routed through Kyrgyzstan.

Turkmenistan: Only Regional Surplus Holder

Turkmenistan's trade with China edged down 1 percent, from $4.87 billion to $4.82 billion. Despite this, Ashgabat remained the only Central Asian state to maintain a trade surplus with China. Turkmen exports to China continued a years-long decline, falling from $4.23 billion to $4.04 billion, while imports grew from $641 million to $778 million. Turkmenistan is a major supplier of natural gas to China through the Central Asia-China pipeline, which has been operational since 2009 and remains the country's primary export conduit.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com