China is set to release its August trade figures today, with forecasters anticipating another acceleration in export growth even as the broader domestic economy continues to show signs of strain. A Reuters poll of economists points to exports rising 25% year-on-year, building on July's 23.9% gain, while imports are forecast to climb 30% year-on-year, up from 27.5% previously. The trade surplus is expected to widen further, to around $119.05 billion from $112.5 billion in July.

Key points at a glance:

• Exports forecast to rise 25% year-on-year in August, accelerating from 23.9% in July
• Imports forecast to rise 30% year-on-year, up from 27.5% in July
• Trade surplus expected to widen to around $119.05 billion from $112.5 billion in July
• Exports have become a key pillar propping up growth as domestic consumption and investment stay weak
• China's GDP growth slowed to 4.3% in the second quarter against a 4.5–5% full-year target
• August's official manufacturing PMI pointed to improved but still subdued activity, while the private PMI was better, marking the longest upturn in five years

The pattern behind the forecast is a familiar one this year. Exports have increasingly become the pillar sustaining Chinese growth as tepid domestic consumption and a prolonged slump in investment weigh on the broader economy, according to Reuters. That reliance carries its own complications: continued export strength reduces the political urgency for Beijing to address weaker segments of the economy, such as the property sector, even as it keeps trade frictions with major partners in the spotlight. Those frictions are not abstract — the United States and the European Union have both moved this year to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, including electric vehicles, citing concerns about subsidised overcapacity, while several emerging markets have also opened trade investigations into low-cost Chinese imports.

The wider growth backdrop adds context to today's release. China's economy expanded 4.3% in the second quarter, a slowdown from a stronger start to the year, leaving policymakers' 4.5–5% full-year target looking harder to reach without a pickup elsewhere. August's official manufacturing PMI offered a partial silver lining, showing activity improved from July's level even though it remained in subdued territory overall — suggesting the domestic side of the economy is stabilising rather than genuinely recovering.

For markets, the import side of the release may carry more signal than the export figure. A stronger import number would point to some genuine pickup in domestic demand rather than simply reflecting re-exported components, and tends to be read more favourably by commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar, given the trade relationship between the two economies. China is Australia's largest two-way trading partner and a major buyer of Australian iron ore and other raw materials, which is why Chinese activity data regularly moves the Australian dollar regardless of the timing of domestic Reserve Bank of Australia decisions.

A stronger-than-forecast export print would extend China's reliance on external demand to offset a sluggish domestic economy — a dynamic that has held even as it pushes trade tensions with major partners further into focus. Import strength, if it also beats forecast, would be read more constructively as a signal of firmer domestic demand rather than just re-exported components, and tends to carry more weight for commodity-linked currencies including the Australian dollar. A miss on either side would reinforce concerns that August's still-subdued manufacturing PMI reading is the more accurate signal of underlying momentum than the trade headline.

The trade data will ultimately show whether exports can keep carrying an economy where domestic demand still isn't pulling its weight.