Artificial intelligence tools are increasingly being used to assess cryptocurrency market direction, with institutional players relying on data-driven models alongside traditional analysis. When major geopolitical events occur, these models can offer structured perspectives on potential market reactions.

The latest significant development is President Donald Trump's imposition of new tariffs on 60 countries. At the time of the announcement, Bitcoin was trading above $65,000, while XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger and one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market value, was just above $1.11. Both assets had posted gains in the week preceding the news.

Trump's New Tariff Framework

President Trump introduced a new tariff structure covering 60 countries following the expiration of temporary 10% global tariffs. The framework stems from a Section 301 investigation — a mechanism under the Trade Act of 1974 that permits the U.S. to address unfair foreign trade practices — launched in March to determine whether U.S. trading partners were preventing imports made with forced labor. The investigation concluded in June that all 60 countries failed to meet the required standard, prompting the new tariff regime.

The import taxes took effect at midnight and apply to approximately 99% of all goods entering the United States. Argentina, Canada, India, Mexico, and the UK are subject to a 10% charge. China, Brazil, Russia, and Saudi Arabia face a 12.5% rate. Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland had their total tariff burden capped at 12.5%. These new rates do not stack with existing duties on steel and aluminum.

TRUMP JUST IMPOSED NEW TARIFFS ON 60 COUNTRIES STARTING TODAY. The Supreme Court struck down Trump's original "Liberation Day" tariffs in February. In response, Trump imposed temporary 10% global tariffs as a placeholder. Those tariffs were set to expire today, and today's new… pic.twitter.com/eoc3EFbs37 — Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) July 24, 2026

The Supreme Court had previously struck down Trump's original "Liberation Day" tariffs in February. In response, Trump imposed temporary 10% global tariffs as a placeholder, which were set to expire on the day the new framework took effect.

For cryptocurrency holders, the relevance of import tariffs lies in their broader economic effects. Tariffs can drive up inflation, slow economic growth, and influence the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rate policy. If inflation remains elevated, rate cuts may be delayed, which typically reduces appetite for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if investors anticipate weaker economic growth, markets could begin pricing in future monetary easing, a dynamic that has historically supported digital assets.

ChatGPT's Bitcoin Price Scenarios

ChatGPT identified three potential paths for Bitcoin following the tariff announcement.

In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin could move toward $67,500 to $69,000. The rationale is that if the market interprets the tariffs as inflationary without severely damaging economic growth, Bitcoin may reassert its appeal as a store of value during uncertain periods. ChatGPT also cited constructive network developments, including the 15 million Bitcoin Security Consortium reinforcing ecosystem confidence and Telegram's plans for a native crypto wallet that could expand adoption if Bitcoin support is integrated. ETF flows remain the most significant variable, with a return to net inflows capable of pushing BTC toward the upper target.

In the bearish case, Bitcoin could decline to between $63,500 and $64,000. ChatGPT noted that investors may initially treat tariffs covering nearly all U.S. imports as a risk-off event, triggering selling across equities and digital assets. The analysis referenced the latest $225 million Bitcoin ETF outflow and the bankruptcy of mining pool Poolin as additional factors that could pressure sentiment if BTC loses support near $65,000.

The most probable outcome, according to ChatGPT, is consolidation between $64,800 and $66,800. The tariffs introduce fresh macroeconomic uncertainty, although the 10% to 12.5% rates were largely anticipated following the Section 301 investigation. Strong institutional demand continues to underpin Bitcoin, though short-term ETF flows may cap immediate upside.

ChatGPT's XRP Price Scenarios

For XRP, ChatGPT similarly outlined three possible outcomes.

The bullish target ranges from $1.16 to $1.20. ChatGPT expects XRP to outperform if Bitcoin remains stable following the tariff announcement. The analysis pointed to ongoing discussions about lowering XRP Ledger reserve requirements and improving onboarding processes, both of which could support network activity. A breakout above recent resistance could allow buyers to extend the recovery.

The bearish case places XRP between $1.05 and $1.08. ChatGPT anticipates that XRP would follow Bitcoin lower if tariffs trigger another broad cryptocurrency sell-off. The reserve requirement discussion is considered largely neutral for price over the near term, leaving macroeconomic conditions as the primary driver. If Bitcoin breaks below support, XRP could revisit recent lows.

The base-case forecast projects XRP trading between $1.10 and $1.15. ChatGPT assesses that the tariff announcement creates uncertainty across financial markets without directly affecting XRP's fundamentals. Unless Bitcoin makes a decisive move in either direction, XRP is expected to remain within its established range.

Market Context and Key Variables

Trump's new tariffs represent a macro event that traders cannot ignore. Whether the measures trigger higher inflation, slower economic growth, or shifts in Federal Reserve expectations will likely shape the next move across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Key indicators to watch in the coming weeks include Consumer Price Index readings for signs of tariff-driven inflation, Federal Reserve communications on rate policy, and weekly ETF flow data, which have become a widely followed barometer of institutional sentiment since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024.

ChatGPT's overall outlook points to consolidation as the most probable outcome for both Bitcoin and XRP, though stronger ETF inflows or a broader market rally could push both assets toward their bullish targets. Traders will be monitoring macroeconomic data, institutional flows, and Bitcoin's price reaction as the market absorbs the impact of the new trade policy.