Morning Minute is a daily newsletter authored by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt.

Today's top headlines:

• Crypto majors trade largely flat ahead of CPI data, with ETH leading marginal gains; BTC holds at $64k
• SEC prepares to advance formal crypto rulemaking on Friday, including provisions for tokenized securities
• Robinhood Chain generates 10x the revenue of Base, with TVL approaching $500M
• Harmony suffers an exploit resulting in 26% of its total supply being minted
• CFTC invokes emergency authority to keep Kalshi operating in New York State

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CFTC Shields Kalshi From New York as Revenue Doubles

The federal government has overruled a state attempt to shut down a prediction market platform.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission invoked "emergency authority" on Tuesday to order Kalshi to continue operating in New York, coming just days after state Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit to block the platform's sports contracts. Kalshi had requested the regulator's intervention, and the CFTC complied.

The stakes are considerable. According to The Information, Kalshi has surpassed a $4 billion annualized revenue run rate—double its level from just two months ago—and is currently raising capital at a $40 billion valuation. States are moving to rein in the platform at precisely the moment it is becoming one of the fastest-growing companies in finance. Prediction markets have expanded rapidly from election forecasting into sports and event contracts, drawing millions of new users and intensifying scrutiny from state gambling regulators who argue these products fall outside federal derivatives law.

New York contends that sports prediction markets constitute gambling that circumvents state licensing and tax requirements, revenue that the state says supports schools and problem-gambling programs. The CFTC counters that these are federally regulated swaps. Chairman Mike Selig, a crypto-friendly Trump appointee, stated that "Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated under a patchwork of state gaming laws," accusing New York of attempting to make the contracts "waste away under its iron curtain of state gaming laws." He argued that these are interstate financial markets that New York "has no business" regulating.

This marks a recurring pattern. The CFTC's intervention is its third on Kalshi's behalf, following a similar move in Michigan, and the commission has separately sued New York outright. However, the underlying cases remain unresolved, and a judge has already ruled against Kalshi's bid to halt the suit. Meanwhile, Kalshi continues to generate increasing revenue and raise capital at progressively higher valuations. The jurisdictional fight parallels broader tensions in digital asset regulation, where federal agencies and state regulators have clashed over oversight authority—a dynamic now playing out across prediction markets, crypto exchanges, and tokenized financial products.

The central question now at stake: whether a federal license permits these platforms to operate nationwide, or whether fifty state regulators each hold an effective veto. The CFTC has thrown its full weight behind the former interpretation, and with revenue doubling, both sides have billions of dollars in reasons to prevail. A definitive judicial ruling on federal preemption could determine whether the prediction market sector operates as a unified national market or fragments under state-by-state compliance regimes.

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Macro, Crypto and Markets

Crypto majors were mostly flat ahead of the CPI release this morning: BTC -0.2% at $64k; ETH +1% at $1,910; SOL +1% at $77; HYPE +0.4% at $55.80.

Top altcoin movers included CC (+5%), CRV (+4%), and NEAR (+3%).

Oil +1% at $83; Gold +0.7% at $4,470.

Stock futures were slightly green ahead of CPI: DOW +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.6%.

The SEC set an August 14 meeting to propose "Regulation Crypto," its first formal crypto rulemaking initiative. The proposed framework would allow projects to raise capital without registering as securities and to exit SEC oversight once they achieve sufficient decentralization—positioned as the agency's response to the Senate stalling the CLARITY Act. The initiative marks a departure from the enforcement-led strategy that defined the agency's prior approach to crypto oversight, where regulation-by-litigation left many projects without clear compliance pathways.

Strategy's credit model sets STRC's undercollateralization floor at $16,184 and its total debt-and-preferred floor at $20,587, meaning Bitcoin would need to decline approximately 68–75% before the structure breaks, according to data Saylor shared.

Trump Media's crypto bet drove a $238 million quarterly loss, as the company behind Truth Social booked steep markdowns on the digital-asset treasury and prediction-market ventures it recently abandoned.

Crypto-friendly bank Erebor is in talks to raise $1.5 billion at a $9.5 billion valuation, per the FT.

MoneyGram expanded on Solana with a global crypto-to-cash service, enabling users to convert stablecoins to physical cash across its worldwide agent network.

Exchange spot volume fell 21.7% in July to $429 billion across 14 major venues, with every exchange down month over month. Binance led at $196.5 billion (45.8% of total), followed by OKX and Bybit.

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs saw $8M in net inflows on Tuesday; ETH ETFs recorded $1.7M in outflows.

Fidelity is adding staking and quarterly cash distributions to FETH, its $900M ETH ETF. The fund will stake up to 100% of holdings and pass net rewards to investors while retaining 85% of gross rewards.

Meme Coin Tracker

Meme leaders were mixed: DOGE +2%, SHIB even, PEPE -1%, PENGU -2%, TRUMP -2%, BONK -4%.

Robinhood chain leaders included HMM (+100%) and AI (+40%), while other leaders declined.

Solana leaders included Plumber (+35x), Alon (+20%), and Jimothy (+36%). Stonk briefly hit a new ATH at $15M after a Solana retweet (now back at $12.5M).

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Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

Robinhood Chain is now generating 10x the revenue of Base, while its TVL nears $500M (per DeFiLlama).

Harmony suffered an unauthorized mint of 4 billion ONE, approximately 26% of the total supply, causing the token to crash as 2.8 billion ONE was dumped onto exchanges. Supply-inflation exploits are among the most damaging attacks in crypto, as they directly dilute the holdings of every existing token holder. The network is pursuing freezes and a possible rollback—a remedy last used at scale by Ethereum after the 2016 DAO hack, though rollback decisions remain deeply controversial within blockchain communities that prize immutability.

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NFTs

NFT leaders were slightly red: Punks -1% at 31.7 ETH, BAYC even at 8.17 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 3.92 ETH; Stonkbrokers -7% to 12.5 ETH.

Cash Cats (+155%) and Normies (+65%) led top movers.

New project Yardkeepers debuted and reached a 0.7 ETH floor (YARD token at $4M).

The FWA team debuted user profiles and a chat app, while teasing personal pools coming soon. FWA ran to $40M and a new ATH before retracing (currently at $31M).