The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is examining bets that former Republican Representative Adam Kinzinger placed on whether he would receive a presidential pardon. Kinzinger has defended the trades, saying he had been out of office for two years at the time and had no access to insider information.

Why is the CFTC investigating the Kalshi wagers?

Three anonymous sources said the CFTC is investigating wagers placed through a Kalshi account tied to Kinzinger in December 2024 and January 2025. Two of the sources said Kalshi is also reviewing the same transactions. Politico reported on the investigation.

The wagers concerned a presidential pardon that Kinzinger later received from then-President Joe Biden. Kinzinger has acknowledged placing two relevant contracts: one on whether he personally would be pardoned and another on whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving the White House.

Screenshots provided by Kinzinger showed a profit of $823. He said he made roughly 25 trades during that period and lost money on most of them.

In Biden’s final hours as president in January 2025, he preemptively pardoned Kinzinger and the other members of the House select committee that investigated the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The pardons came after Donald Trump publicly called for the committee members to be jailed.

Kinzinger retired from the House in 2023 and was a private citizen when he placed the bets. He maintains that he had no inside information about the pardons.

Kinzinger also said he reviewed Kalshi’s rules before trading. According to his account, the rules restrict people who worked for an agency relevant to a wager, could influence its outcome, or possessed non-public information about it. He said he believed he was permitted to trade because he had never discussed the pardons with anyone.

Kinzinger’s changing view of prediction markets

In a November 25, 2025, Substack post, Kinzinger described Kalshi as a “corruption time bomb.” He argued that allowing insiders to bet on the conduct of individual officials was “a blueprint for legalized corruption.” He also called Donald Trump Jr.’s role as a Kalshi strategic adviser a “radioactive” conflict.

Kinzinger has since adopted a softer position, reportedly saying that he is “pleased with how Kalshi has begun screening.”

His dispute with Trump remains longstanding. After Trump wrote in a March 2025 Truth Social post that the committee’s pardons were “void” and that the recipients were “subject to investigation at the highest level,” Kinzinger responded on X: “bring it on, dude.”

Kinzinger is not the first political figure whose activity Kalshi has flagged. In April, the platform suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races. In late August, it issued a lifetime ban against former New York Republican Representative George Santos over trades connected to whether he would attend the State of the Union. As with Kinzinger’s wagers, both cases centered on public figures betting on events tied to their own political circumstances.

Cryptopolitan reported that the CFTC ordered Santos to forfeit $17,569.98, pay a civil penalty of $17,500, and remain out of the markets for three years. The report is available here.

Regulators and the prediction-market industry have been working to address the issue for months. In late April, the Senate voted unanimously to bar lawmakers and their staff from prediction markets. Cryptopolitan also reported that venture firm a16z urged the CFTC to create a single federal framework featuring know-your-customer (KYC) checks and “prohibited trader lists.” The reported review of Kinzinger’s account now sits within that wider debate over who should be allowed to trade on prediction markets.