Cardano’s market capitalization has increased 42% since September 16, while ADA rose from approximately $0.19 to $0.27. On-chain data shows that transactions worth at least $100,000 reached 413 in a single day, the highest daily count since June 4.

ADA’s social dominance also climbed to 1.16%, its highest reading of 2026. At the same time, open interest increased about 25% over two days to $304 million, marking its highest daily close since at least early April.

The rally has brought renewed attention from large holders and retail participants. New project launches and anticipated integrations have also contributed to discussion around the Cardano network.

Whale activity and social interest increase

Santiment Intelligence reported the whale-transaction data in a post on X. The firm said Cardano’s 42% advance since September 16 had coincided with renewed activity among large holders. Transactions of at least $100,000 reached 413 in one day, a level not seen since June 4. Whale-transaction counts of this kind are a widely tracked on-chain metric, filtering activity by transfer size to gauge participation from large holders.

https://x.com/SantimentData/status/2107575337035129259?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Cardano Whales Wake Up, ADA Marketcap Now Up 42% Since September 16th! Cardano’s +42% run since September 16th has whales moving again. ADA transactions worth at least $100K surged to 413 in one day, marking the highest whale activity since 4th. The crowd has… pic.twitter.com/h3ikkbeNUn — Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) October 6, 2026

Retail interest also increased during the move. Santiment said ADA’s social dominance reached 1.16%, the highest level recorded in 2026, with attention rising sharply as the token moved from about $0.19 to $0.27. Social dominance measures a token’s share of overall cryptocurrency discussion across social media and is commonly used as a gauge of retail attention.

Project developments added to the discussion. RealFi launched on Cardano mainnet on October 1. Santiment also identified anticipation surrounding Leios, Fireblocks support and new institutional integrations as likely contributors to the year’s largest spike in discussion about the network. Fireblocks provides digital-asset custody and infrastructure used by institutional clients.

Open interest data challenges short-squeeze claims

Some reports characterized the ADA rally as a short squeeze, citing a decline in open interest. Santiment examined that interpretation in a second post and said its daily closing data showed the opposite pattern. Open interest tracks the total value of outstanding derivatives positions, a metric commonly used to tell short covering apart from new leverage entering a market.

ADA gained about 10% between October 3 and October 5. During the same period, open interest rose approximately 25% to $304 million. Santiment said that was the highest daily closing level since at least early April. Measured in coins, open interest still increased about 13%, indicating that the change was not attributable solely to ADA’s higher price.

Whale transactions on October 5 were approximately 2.2 times the weekday average recorded between September 7 and October 2. Social volume was about 1.1 times the same baseline.

Funding data provided additional context. Funding reached its most negative level of the previous month on October 2 before turning positive. Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between perpetual futures traders, and negative readings generally indicate that shorts are paying longs while short positioning dominates. Santiment said short covering likely contributed to the move, but noted that covering generally reduces open interest rather than increasing it. On that basis, the firm described the rally as involving fresh leverage entering the market.

Analyst identifies ADA price levels

Analyst Giannis Andreou shared a technical assessment of ADA’s move on X. ADA was trading at $0.2644 when he published his snapshot. Andreou said the token had returned to an area where previous cycles had found a floor and was testing the historical $0.20-to-$0.28 range after bouncing from a potential local base.

https://x.com/gandreou007/status/2107470940716331507?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

$ADA IS BACK WHERE PREVIOUS CYCLES FOUND THEIR FLOOR. At $0.2644, Cardano is testing the historical $0.20–$0.28 band after bouncing from a potential local base. The weekly structure still shows lower highs. Reclaiming $0.32–$0.40 and holding the retest would strengthen the… pic.twitter.com/CgpkJaIPTz — Giannis Andreou (@gandreou007) October 6, 2026

Andreou noted that ADA’s weekly structure continued to show lower highs. In his view, reclaiming the $0.32-to-$0.40 range and holding a subsequent retest would strengthen the recovery case. He identified $0.426 as the next level, followed by a supply zone between $0.55 and $0.65.

Based on the snapshot, a move to $0.40 would represent roughly 51% upside from the cited price. On the downside, a weekly close below $0.20 would bring the $0.14-to-$0.18 range back into focus, while a move below $0.14 would invalidate the local base identified in the analysis.

Andreou concluded by asking whether ADA was building a floor or preparing for another rejection at resistance. The whale-transaction counts, open interest and funding data cited above are the reference points against which the competing short-squeeze and fresh-leverage interpretations of the rally can be followed as new daily readings are published.

Source: Blockonomi