Cardano recovery stalls below key moving average

Cardano remained under pressure on Thursday, with ADA — the native token of the proof-of-stake Cardano network — trading below $0.220 after buyers failed to sustain the previous day's recovery above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. The rejection leaves the token below both its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, maintaining a bearish near-term outlook. Price is now hovering just above the 100-day EMA near $0.220, placing the immediate support level within reach.

Weak derivatives positioning and subdued momentum suggest that buyers have yet to establish enough strength to reverse the corrective trend. Exponential moving averages are among the most widely watched trend gauges in crypto technical analysis, and sustained trade beneath them is generally read as a sign that sellers retain control of the near-term direction.

Data from CoinGlass showed Cardano's long-to-short ratio at 0.96 on Thursday, nearing its lowest reading in more than a month. The figure points to a greater share of short positioning among the accounts measured, reflecting caution about ADA's recovery prospects.

Funding rates reinforced that picture. Cardano's funding rate turned negative on Wednesday and stood at -0.0025% on Thursday, meaning short-position holders were paying longs. Together, the readings indicate a bearish tilt in derivatives positioning. They do not guarantee further losses, but they provide little confirmation of renewed bullish conviction. With leveraged money skewed toward the short side, a long-to-short ratio back above 1.0 and funding returning toward neutral would be early indications that traders are turning less bearish.

CryptoQuant's summary data also indicated selling pressure across Cardano markets. The platform identified large whale orders and heating conditions in futures trading, alongside sell-side dominance in both spot and futures markets. Large orders alone do not establish direction, but their presence alongside stronger selling activity adds to the cautious backdrop as ADA struggles beneath overhead resistance. A stronger recovery would require buyers to absorb that supply and sustain price gains beyond nearby technical barriers.

Momentum indicators remain weak

Cardano's daily momentum indicators continue to favor caution. The Relative Strength Index, a momentum oscillator scored on a 0–100 scale, remains in the low-40s, below the neutral 50 threshold, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence, a trend-following indicator, stays negative, suggesting that bearish pressure may be easing without a confirmed reversal.

The first support to watch is the 100-day EMA near $0.220. A sustained break below that level would bring the $0.210 area into focus. If selling extends through $0.210, the chart points to a deeper support region around $0.170 — a downside scenario that remains dependent on a breakdown of the nearer support levels.

On the upside, the 50-day EMA around $0.228–$0.230 forms the first recovery barrier. A sustained move above that zone would ease immediate pressure and shift attention toward horizontal resistance near $0.236, followed by the 200-day EMA around $0.240. Further resistance lies near $0.250, with $0.300 a more distant level should a broader recovery develop.

For now, ADA's ability to hold $0.220 remains central to its short-term outlook, as bearish derivatives positioning and weak momentum limit recovery attempts.