Cardano (ADA) traded near $0.222 on Monday after climbing more than 15% over the previous week. The token has held on to the bulk of those gains even as derivatives positioning and on-chain indicators paint a mixed, cautious picture among traders. Strengthening technical momentum, however, suggests ADA may be able to extend its recovery — provided buyers can push through a dense cluster of resistance between $0.231 and $0.245. ADA is currently trading above both its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, underpinning an improving short-term outlook.

The recovery comes amid a broader period of heightened volatility for digital assets, where the prices of major cryptocurrencies have swung sharply on shifting macroeconomic sentiment and trade-policy headlines. ADA, the native token of the proof-of-stake Cardano blockchain, remains one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization and tends to track wider market moves, which means its direction in the near term is likely to depend partly on overall crypto risk appetite as well as its own technical setup.

A divided derivatives market

On the derivatives side, the signals are split. CoinGlass data shows ADA's long-to-short ratio at 0.94. A reading below 1 means short positions outnumber long positions, so slightly more traders are positioned for a price decline than for an advance. Even so, the gap between bullish and bearish positioning is narrow, indicating caution rather than strong bearish conviction.

Funding rates tell a more encouraging story. Cardano's open interest-weighted funding rate turned positive on Saturday and stood at 0.0097% on Monday. A positive funding rate means traders holding long positions are paying those holding shorts, which typically reflects increased demand for bullish exposure. The shift points to improved sentiment following ADA's double-digit weekly rally.

CryptoQuant's summary data likewise points to cautiously optimistic sentiment around Cardano. Large whale orders have appeared in ADA's futures market, signaling increased activity from well-capitalized traders. Most other tracked metrics remain neutral, which limits the strength of the bullish signal. Taken together, the large orders and neutral broader indicators suggest institutional or whale interest may be growing, but the market has not yet established overwhelmingly bullish positioning. Continued buying from large traders could support the recovery, while a decline in whale activity could leave ADA vulnerable to profit-taking.

Momentum indicators strengthen

ADA's price remains above the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, both clustered around the psychologically important $0.200 level. The Relative Strength Index stands near 61 on the daily chart — a reading that reflects solid bullish momentum while staying below the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting ADA may still have room to rise before the rally becomes overstretched.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has also turned marginally positive, signaling that buyers are gradually gaining control, although a descending trendline continues to act as dynamic resistance. Combined, the RSI and MACD support a constructive short-term view, but ADA must clear several overhead barriers to confirm an extended recovery.

The immediate resistance sits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $0.231. A move above that level would bring horizontal resistance at $0.236 into focus. The 200-day EMA sits around $0.243, just below another key resistance level at $0.245. This concentration of technical barriers could attract profit-taking and slow ADA's advance. A sustained break above $0.245 and the descending trendline would strengthen the bullish case and potentially open the door to a more substantial recovery.

Conversely, failure to clear $0.231 could trigger a pullback toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.213. Below that, the 100-day EMA around $0.200 and the 50-day EMA near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.195 form a broader support zone. Deeper support levels sit at $0.173 and $0.150.

ADA's outlook remains cautiously bullish while the price holds above $0.200, but overcoming the $0.231–$0.245 resistance region will be crucial for extending the rally. For traders watching the setup unfold, the most informative signals in the sessions ahead will be whether funding rates stay positive, whether whale futures activity persists, and whether ADA can generate enough volume to break and hold above the $0.245 barrier.

Source: CoinJournal | Derivatives data: CoinGlass