Grayscale's withdrawal of its proposed Cardano, Hedera, and Polkadot ETF filings arrived at an uncomfortable moment for ADA, according to Linda, a Cardano-focused YouTube host who previously operated a Cardano stake pool.

Speaking in a YouTube episode, Linda noted that Cardano's regulated futures trading reached a required track-record threshold on August 9, potentially making ADA eligible for listing under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's generic standards for spot cryptocurrency ETFs. That threshold matters because the SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 — followed by spot Ethereum ETFs later that year — established a regulatory template in which a mature, regulated futures market serves as the foundation for approving a spot product. ADA clearing that benchmark places it, at least on paper, among the assets that could now navigate the same pathway.

That does not mean a Cardano ETF is imminent. Linda's central argument is that Grayscale may have determined the commercial case was too thin to justify launching a standalone ADA product, even with the regulatory pathway now open.

Eligibility Opens, but Demand Remains the Harder Test

Regulated CME futures trading has been widely regarded as a prerequisite for crypto assets pursuing a spot ETF listing in the United States, largely because the SEC relied on CME surveillance data in its Bitcoin and Ethereum approvals. Under that framework, ADA has now satisfied an important condition that had previously constrained its ETF prospects.

Grayscale nevertheless withdrew its filings only days before that threshold was reached, according to Linda. The firm did not publicly explain its rationale in the video, but she characterized the move as a business decision rather than a rejection of Cardano itself. The withdrawal is part of a broader wave of altcoin ETF filings that have proliferated since the Bitcoin approvals, many of which face uncertain commercial prospects regardless of their regulatory eligibility.

"An ETF is just an open door," she said. "It doesn't mean that people will buy it." The observation carries weight because ETF approvals have frequently been treated across crypto markets as an automatic catalyst for price appreciation, despite the inconsistent track record of non-Bitcoin products.

Solana and XRP Provide a Sobering ETF Benchmark

Linda cited XRP and Solana ETF products as a more realistic yardstick for a potential Cardano fund than Bitcoin. She noted that JPMorgan had projected $8 billion in first-year XRP ETF inflows, while actual inflows were sitting below $1.5 billion. Solana products were cited at approximately $1.8 billion.

In the video's framing, Bitcoin ETFs typically attract around $100 million in net inflows and Ethereum products roughly $50 million, whereas Solana and XRP products currently hover near zero. Those figures were presented as evidence that initial enthusiasm for major altcoin ETFs can dissipate rapidly when broader market demand is soft.

Grayscale's existing exposure to ADA also appears marginal. Linda stated that the firm's private-fund ADA holdings total only about $78,000, with ADA representing approximately 5% of its Smart Contract Fund. She argued this provides little incentive to invest in a dedicated Cardano ETF.

What a Future ADA ETF Could Actually Change

The notable shift is one of eligibility: Cardano may now have a clearer path to Wall Street should another major issuer step forward. Linda cautioned, however, that approval alone would not generate sustained demand without stronger ecosystem activity, developer engagement, and market visibility.

She pointed to several potential demand drivers, including Cardano scaling initiatives, Bitcoin DeFi development, the planned RealFi mainnet, an Injective bridge, and the community's vote to allocate half a billion ADA toward ecosystem spending. Under that view, a future ETF would amplify existing interest rather than create it from nothing.