Cardano traded at $0.1738 on July 23 as ADA pressed against a descending trendline that rejected the token in both June and mid-July, while large holders accumulated more than 30 million ADA over the past week.

ADA was up 4.2% for the week, marking its strongest weekly performance since the 31% advance recorded from late June into early July. Cardano, which ranks among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, has trailed the broader market recovery this year, making the trendline test a notable inflection point for the token. The move came as Bitcoin long-term holder supply reached a new all-time high, a pattern that has coincided with every major crypto cycle bottom since 2015.

ADA Trades Between the 20-Day EMA and a Descending Trendline

ADA's daily chart shows price compression between the 20-day exponential moving average at $0.1682 and a descending trendline drawn from the May peak. That trendline slopes through the $0.1750 to $0.1770 range and has acted as resistance twice.

The token tested the trendline on July 22 and again on July 23, facing a light rejection on both occasions before moving back toward the 20-day EMA. The Bollinger midline at $0.1704 also sits within the same compression zone, leaving price contained between near-term support and overhead resistance. Extended periods of such compression between converging technical levels often precede a directional move, though the direction depends on which side gives way first.

If ADA breaks above the trendline, the Bollinger upper band at $0.1881 is the first upside reference point. The 50-day EMA at $0.1769 is positioned just above current price, while the 100-day EMA at $0.2033 represents the next significant ceiling. The 200-day EMA at $0.2707 remains the longer-term recovery reference level, a benchmark widely watched by traders as a dividing line between bearish and bullish longer-term structure.

On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at $0.1526 and the June support area near $0.1500 define the main floor. LuckSide Crypto noted that ADA has bounced from the 20-day EMA on both retests this week, keeping the recovery structure intact as long as that level continues to hold.

Key ADA Support and Resistance Levels

Near-term support is located at $0.1682 on the 20-day EMA and $0.1704 on the Bollinger midline.

Near-term resistance is positioned at the descending trendline near $0.1760 and at $0.1769 on the 50-day EMA.

Extended resistance stands at $0.1881 on the Bollinger upper band and $0.2033 on the 100-day EMA.

The key downside floor is located at $0.1526 on the lower Bollinger Band, with additional support near the June support zone.

Whales Accumulate 30 Million ADA as Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply Hits Record

More than 30 million $ADA have been accumulated by whales over the past week. Large Cardano holders appear to be positioning for the next move. pic.twitter.com/2TEOrjp7Ac — Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 22, 2026

Ali Charts reported that whale wallets accumulated more than 30 million ADA over the past seven days. The accumulation took place as ADA approached what the chart setup presents as a critical breakout test. Whale accumulation during periods of price weakness has historically been interpreted as a signal that large holders view current levels as undervalued, though it does not guarantee subsequent price appreciation.

The ADA accumulation coincided with a broader Bitcoin metric: long-term holder supply reached a new all-time high. LuckSide Crypto linked that signal to earlier cycle-bottom periods, noting that similar patterns appeared in late 2022, late 2019, and late 2015 before Bitcoin's major recoveries.

According to that historical comparison, current crypto price levels would be viewed as an accumulation zone rather than a continuation of the bear trend if the same pattern were to hold.

Macro Factors in Focus This Week

Two macroeconomic variables remain in focus through the second half of the week. Brent crude prices are rising after the United States confirmed 11 straight days of strikes on Iran, while CENTCOM said the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial transit.

Oil markets appear skeptical of that statement based on price action, and any escalation could add broader risk-off pressure across crypto markets. Rising energy costs also feed into inflation expectations, which influence Federal Reserve policy decisions affecting risk assets including digital currencies.

Separately, officials at Japan's central bank signaled openness to faster rate hikes as yen weakness contributes to domestic inflation. Bank of Japan rate hikes have historically correlated with crypto selloffs, making the timing of any potential move a variable being watched ahead of the FOMC meeting on July 29. The August 2024 BoJ rate hike, for instance, triggered a broad unwind of the yen carry trade that pressured crypto markets globally.

ADA Upside and Downside Scenarios

In the upside scenario outlined by the technical setup, ADA would break the descending trendline near $0.1760 on volume, close above the 50-day EMA at $0.1769, and see follow-through buying toward the Bollinger upper band at $0.1881 and the 100-day EMA at $0.2033. The source also cited the weekly accumulation of 30 million ADA by whales and continued CLARITY Act momentum into the weekend as factors in that scenario. The CLARITY Act, a bill advancing through the U.S. House of Representatives that would establish a framework for regulating digital assets and delineate jurisdiction between the CFTC and SEC, represents one of the most significant pieces of crypto legislation under consideration.

In the downside scenario, the descending trendline would reject ADA for a third time, price would lose the 20-day EMA at $0.1682, and macro pressure from oil prices and Bank of Japan rate-hike signals would weigh on the broader market. Under that setup, ADA would move back toward the lower Bollinger Band at $0.1526.

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