Cardano (ADA) fell below $0.202 on Monday and was trading near $0.201 as pressure persisted across its derivatives, spot, and technical indicators. The move extends a run of three consecutive weekly losses and leaves the token down more than 20% since early October.

ADA remains beneath several major moving averages, suggesting buyers have yet to establish a sustained recovery. Although momentum is approaching oversold territory, the broader setup continues to favor sellers, and any near-term rebound would face multiple resistance levels before materially improving the outlook.

Derivatives positioning tilts toward shorts

CoinGlass data shows Cardano's long-to-short ratio at 0.92 on Monday, close to its lowest reading in more than a month. A ratio below one indicates that short positioning outweighs long positioning within the measured dataset, pointing to a cautious market in which traders continue to favor downside exposure.

ADA's funding rate has also turned negative, reaching -0.0032%. Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between perpetual futures traders to keep contract prices aligned with spot markets, and negative readings mean short traders are paying longs to maintain their positions, a dynamic consistent with stronger demand for bearish exposure. Together, the metrics reinforce the weak price trend, although neither guarantees that losses will continue. A return of the funding rate to positive territory would signal renewed willingness among leveraged traders to pay for long exposure.

CryptoQuant's summary indicators add to the cautious picture. The platform flags large whale orders and overheating conditions in Cardano's futures market, while its spot and futures indicators show sell-side dominance, suggesting selling pressure extends beyond leveraged positioning. Large orders alone do not establish the direction of whale activity. However, alongside the reported selling imbalance and negative funding, the data offers limited evidence of a decisive shift toward stronger buying demand.

ADA remains below key moving averages

Cardano's daily technical structure remains bearish, with the price below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, trend-following indicators that weight recent prices more heavily than older data. These averages sit between approximately $0.218 and $0.237, forming a series of overhead barriers.

The Relative Strength Index, a momentum oscillator scored on a scale from 0 to 100, stands at 33, just above the conventional oversold threshold of 30, a reading that reflects persistent weakness while leaving room for a short-lived corrective bounce. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains negative, with the MACD line below its signal line, and its subdued bearish profile provides little confirmation that momentum is turning in buyers' favor.

The former trendline break near $0.213 represents Cardano's immediate resistance. Above that level, buyers would face the 100-day EMA at $0. and the 50-day EMA at $0.224. Further resistance sits around $0.236, reinforced by the nearby 200-day EMA at $0.237. A sustained move through that cluster would bring $0.245 into focus, while $0.299 remains a more distant barrier.

On the downside, $0.200 is the nearest psychological reference as ADA trades just above it, a round-number level that traders commonly use as a marker for stop-loss and entry placement. For buyers, reclaiming $0.213 would mark an initial improvement. A more convincing recovery would require ADA to overcome its moving averages alongside stronger momentum and easing selling pressure.

Source: CoinJournal