Starting Sept. 8, roughly $20 billion worth of U.S. goods will face Canadian counter-tariffs of up to 50%. The measures follow the 50% duties Washington imposed on Canadian goods on Aug. 22. U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed focus on Canada should come as no surprise, given that Washington declined to extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in July.

For four decades, Canadian commercial life rested on the assumption that access to the U.S. market was a constant rather than a variable. That assumption no longer holds, regardless of whether the tariffs persist. So where should Canadians turn next? The answer is Asia—provided both sides can overcome their mutual ignorance.

A pivot, where it makes sense

The U.S. was the destination for an estimated 65% of Canadian goods and services exports in the first half of 2026, down from roughly 75% in 2024. Much of the shift, however, involved a handful of commodities such as oil, gold, and liquefied natural gas. The European Union and China each attracted about 5% of Canada's exports.

No single market can replace the United States, which means Canadian companies will need to develop multiple smaller markets simultaneously. The effort would be worthwhile: if Canada sells into several large, growing, rules-based markets, the next unilateral decision from Washington could be treated as an annoyance rather than an emergency.

Not starting from scratch

The groundwork for Canada's expansion into Asia has already been laid. Japan and South Korea are the immediate priorities, given their purchasing power, strong rule of law, and established links with Canada. Much of Canada-Japan and Canada-Korea trade already is, or soon will be, tariff-free—Canada concluded a bilateral free trade agreement with South Korea in 2015, its first with an Asian market, and tariff coverage with Japan flows substantially through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which Canada joined at its entry into force in 2018. Canada supplies Korea and Japan with energy and agricultural products, while Japan and Korea provide batteries, semiconductors, machinery, and shipbuilding capacity. Taiwan offers similar benefits as well; the Taiwan-Canada Trade Cooperation Framework awaits signing.

Energy leads Canada's exports to Asia, facilitated by Asian investment. LNG Canada, the country's first large-scale liquefied natural gas export facility, is backed by Petronas, Korea Gas, Mitsubishi, and PetroChina, and already ships to countries across Asia.

According to the Canadian Energy Regulator (CER), crude oil exports to destinations other than the United States were worth $10 billion in 2025, averaging roughly 430,000 barrels a day—up from effectively zero before 2024. The expansion follows the completion of pipeline capacity to Canada's West Coast, which for the first time allowed large volumes of crude to reach Pacific tidewater. Sales have not slowed: Alberta's oil exports to China and South Korea rose 122% and 227%, respectively, in the first four months of 2026. These energy flows cross the Pacific without passing through any contested chokepoint.

Other sectors that stand to gain from a shift toward Asia include agrifood, forest products, aluminum, machinery, and digitally delivered services. Southeast Asia is an important growth area for these sectors. Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore are all CPTPP partners: Vietnam offers growth and manufacturing demand; Malaysia provides industrial and processed-food opportunities; and Singapore serves as a regional base as well as a sophisticated end-market, particularly for niche agrifood and technology products.

The region's largest markets present further opportunities. India and Indonesia are high-growth, higher-friction markets promising demand for machinery, industrial technology, infrastructure, and specialty inputs. China, meanwhile, will remain a selective market for Canada in both sourcing and exports, given sensitivities around national security and overcapacity. Beyond oil, Canada-China trade will likely concentrate on less sensitive areas, including pulp, paper, industrial materials, and premium consumer goods.

The barrier is knowledge, in both directions

The obstacle is not market access. Canada and Asia already have the trade agreements, expert agencies, joint business councils, and chambers of commerce needed to facilitate the flow of goods and services. Yet despite this support, too few businesspeople on either side of the Pacific know what is happening on the other.

Polling by the Angus Reid Institute for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada found that 73% of Canadians say they know little or nothing about South Korea, 82% say the same of Singapore, and 90% of Malaysia. Yet 78% supported Canada's CPTPP membership—Canadians endorse the agreement while knowing almost nothing about the countries in it.

The picture on the other side is equally poor. In a Kadin Business Pulse survey of 276 Indonesian firms, 84% of respondents reported they had either never heard of, or knew very little about, the Indonesia-Canada free trade agreement. Many were unaware Canada has a preferential agreement with their country, and among those who knew of it, interpretations of its coverage varied widely. The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada reports similar anecdotes from Vietnam's private sector, especially outside tech manufacturing.

Preferences cannot be leveraged if they are not understood. The task at hand is persuading hundreds of thousands of Canadian and Asian companies that now is the time to get to know each other. Governments can only do so much; the private sector on both sides must educate itself, travel, and test markets and products. The trade agreements and institutional structures exist to support this diversification, but companies must take the first step.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

Barrett Bingley is Asia Regional Director of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, based in Singapore. He was previously senior policy advisor to Canada's foreign and trade ministers.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com (source).