Bitcoin Holds Near $64,350 as Weak U.S. Jobs Data, Higher Oil and Treasury Yields Shape Market Mood
Key Takeaways
- •The U.S. economy lost 23,000 nonfarm payrolls jobs in July, far below the consensus expectation of an 80,000 gain and marking the second consecutive month of labor market deterioration.
- •BTCPay Server disclosed a critical vulnerability that is being actively exploited and urged operators to update to version 2.4.2 immediately or take their servers offline until patched.
- •Markets reduced the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from 55% to 46% following the weaker-than-expected employment data, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%.
- •MetaMask launched an AI-powered Agent Wallet enabling users to assign AI agents to monitor markets and execute crypto trades with configurable spending limits and security modes.
- •Bank of America's bull-and-bear sentiment gauge rose to 9.7 out of 10, its highest level since 2021, prompting the bank to recommend rotating into defensives, duration, and the U.S. dollar.

BTCPay Server has disclosed a critical vulnerability that it says is being actively exploited, putting funds at risk. The project said operators must update to version 2.4.2 immediately or take their servers offline until they can patch. The warning comes during a period of elevated security alerts across bitcoin infrastructure, following the recent Coldcard hardware wallet hack. BTCPay Server is a free, open-source, self-hosted bitcoin payment processor that allows merchants to accept bitcoin and lightning payments directly into their own wallets, without fees or intermediaries. Because self-hosted instances give operators sole control over private keys, there is no custodian or insurer to recover funds if an attacker exploits the flaw.
Preferred panic fades further
Strategy's high-yield preferred stock, STRC, which plunged almost all the way to $70 in mid-June, continued its recovery on Friday, rising another 1.1% to $95.09, less than 5% below its $100 par value.
Preferred shares are hybrid securities that pay a fixed dividend like a bond but trade on stock exchanges, making their price sensitive to both the issuer's ability to pay and broader rate expectations.
The rebound comes as bitcoin has stabilized above $60,000 and as Michael Saylor and his team have made clear they intend to protect the current 12% annual dividend at all costs, raising the required funds through bitcoin sales, common stock sales, or both.
Smaller bitcoin treasury company Strive (ASST) has its own high-yield preferred stock, SATA, carrying a 13% annual dividend. That stock has reclaimed the $99 level after falling as low as $79 during the June selloff.
SpaceX rises after lockup expiration
Elon Musk's SpaceX (SPCX) gained another 9% on Friday, trading back above $125 per share.
SpaceX remains a private company, so its shares change hands on secondary platforms where accredited investors trade illiquid stakes, meaning price moves can be amplified by thin volume.
An investor who bought at the open on Thursday, the day stock lockup expirations added nearly 1 billion shares to the pool available for sale, would be up nearly 20% in a little more than 24 hours. In the month before the expiration, the stock had fallen about 33%.
Strategist says bitcoin's muted action reflects political risk
Markets were rising broadly again on Friday while crypto remained subdued, with bitcoin stuck in a narrow range around $65,000.
"This can't last forever," said James Thorne, chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus.
"At a time when advanced economies are running structurally large deficits and public debt trajectories are drifting further from sustainability, the case for scarce, non-sovereign stores of value should be strengthening," he said.
Thorne said U.S. politics and the failure to pass the Clarity Act are part of the reason.
"[That] introduced a new kind of risk premium. Large asset managers are not questioning Bitcoin's design, they are questioning the cost of being seen to endorse it," he said.
"Bitcoin's muted price action is not a rejection of the debasement argument, it is evidence that markets are discounting political risk more heavily than monetary risk," Thorne argued.
"As M2 expands and sovereign debt compounds, an asset defined by perfect scarcity sits sidelined, not by flawed design, but by institutional timidity, waiting for markets to accept that neither political intimidation nor legislative inertia can suspend arithmetic indefinitely."
Risk assets rally after weaker-than-expected jobs report
Risk assets traded higher on Friday after the U.S. released a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report.
The S&P 500 rose 0.55%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained almost 1%. Bitcoin was up more than 1%, trading above $65,000. Precious metals also advanced, with gold and silver rising more than 2.5% and 3.5%, respectively.
The DXY fell to 99.5, extending its decline from a recent high of 101. A weaker dollar is generally supportive of risk assets. Treasury yields also moved lower, with the U.S. 10-year yield trading at 4.64%. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets were pricing in a 56% chance of a pause at the Sept. 16 Federal Reserve meeting.
Bank of America says weak jobs data shifts focus to inflation
Following Friday's softer labor-market reading, Bank of America said next Wednesday's U.S. Consumer Price Index report is expected to show inflation returned to a more normal pace after June's weaker-than-expected reading.
The bank forecasts headline inflation rose 0.1% in July, helped by lower gasoline prices, while underlying inflation remained more persistent as services costs stayed elevated. The report follows Friday's data showing the U.S. labor market weakened for a second consecutive month in July, which could give the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates unchanged even as inflation remains above target.
Even so, BofA said sticky underlying inflation could keep the possibility of a September rate hike alive.
21Shares says jobs data returns labor market to the Fed debate
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has spent much of his early tenure focused on inflation, but Friday's weak jobs report may force the labor market back into the conversation, according to Stephen Coltman, head of macro at digital asset manager 21Shares.
"Since Warsh took over as Chair, the focus has been squarely on inflation, and the employment side of the Fed's mandate has been barely discussed. That changes today," Coltman said.
He said the weak report, following disappointing June figures and downward revisions to earlier months, makes another rate hike harder to justify.
The latest numbers "undermine the position of those on the committee arguing for higher rates," Coltman said.
He added that another hike could now carry a higher cost, potentially putting more pressure on "what looks like an already deteriorating labour market."
Economist says markets and the Fed should look past the headline miss
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, said a seasonal adjustment issue at the Bureau of Labor Statistics likely distorted the headline number and does not reflect the underlying employment trend.
He pointed to a sharp decline in leisure and hospitality, likely reflecting the end of the World Cup.
Brusuelas said the report is unlikely to move the Federal Reserve, and that investors and policymakers should instead focus on next week's inflation data.
U.S. labor market posts a negative payrolls print in July
The U.S. labor market weakened for the second straight month in July, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to keep rates unchanged despite elevated inflation.
According to the government's Nonfarm Payrolls Report released Friday morning, the U.S. lost 23,000 jobs last month. That was far below the consensus expectation of a gain of 80,000 and down from June's addition of 20,000 jobs, which was revised down from an originally reported 57,000.
May's job gains were also revised sharply lower to 63,000 from an originally reported 129,000.
The last negative jobs print came in February, when the U.S. lost 156,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, compared with the expected 4.2% and June's 4.2%.
Markets reacted quickly, with U.S. stock index futures rising and interest rates dipping. Precious metals also moved higher, with gold up 3% on the day and silver up just shy of 6%. Crypto was relatively quiet, with bitcoin holding modestly higher on the session at $65,000.
Average hourly earnings also missed forecasts, rising 0.1% in July versus expectations for 0.3% and matching June's 0.3% pace. On a year-over-year basis, earnings rose 3.2%, below expectations for 3.5% and down from 3.4% in June.
Ahead of the data, markets were divided on whether the Fed would raise rates at its September meeting. CME FedWatch showed traders pricing a 55% chance of a tightening move next month. Immediately after the release, that probability slipped to 46%.
Bank of America says bullish sentiment is near an extreme
Bank of America's bull-and-bear reading rose to its highest level since 2021, when pandemic-era cash injections were flowing into financial markets.
"We recommend investors retreat from risk assets and/or rotate into some defensives, duration and U.S. dollar," wrote the bank's team, led by Michael Hartnett, after the gauge increased to 9.7 from 9.4 on a scale that tops out at 10.
For crypto market participants, the key difference from 2021 is that digital assets are not sharing in that wave of broad investor enthusiasm. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are trading at heavily depressed prices while other markets continue to notch near-daily record highs.
U.S. jobs report in focus
The jobs report had been expected to show nonfarm payrolls rising by 80,000 in July after 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate was forecast to hold at 4.2%. Markets were pricing a 55% chance of a September Fed rate hike, which would have lifted the target range to 3.75%-4.00% if delivered.
Bitcoin miners transfer $37 million in BTC to NYDIG
Transfers by bitcoin miners to exchanges are often viewed as a sign that they may be preparing to sell. NYDIG, however, also provides custody and financing services, so the coins may remain in custody or be used for another purpose.
According to Lookonchain, MARA Holdings (MARA) deposited 200 BTC, worth $12.86 million, while Riot Platforms (RIOT) transferred another 381 BTC, worth $24.51 million, to NYDIG about 10 hours earlier.
MetaMask launches AI-powered Agent Wallet
MetaMask said it has launched its Agent Wallet, allowing users to assign AI agents to monitor markets and execute crypto trades, swaps and other onchain transactions on their behalf.
Users can connect tools such as Claude Code, Codex and Cursor, set spending limits and protocol permissions, and choose either a more cautious Guard Mode or a less restrictive Beast Mode.
The wallet supports HyperLiquid and selected Ethereum-compatible networks or blockchains. MetaMask said it also adds transaction simulations, threat checks and Miner Extractable Value protection tools before an agent completes a trade.
The launch is part of a broader push across the crypto industry to integrate AI-driven automation into wallets and DeFi platforms, though the category remains early and largely untested at scale.
Precious metals extend gains
Gold and silver continued to rally on Friday. Gold rose another 1% to trade near $4,300 an ounce, while silver surged above $64 an ounce, gaining more than 4% over the past 24 hours.
The metals appeared to be among the main beneficiaries of the AI slowdown, which has prompted a rotation out of AI stocks and into precious metals.
Fidelity's Timmer says yields above 4.5% are a danger zone
Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer said Friday that "nothing good happens" when the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note trades above 4.5%.
"Long-term bond yields are on the move again, with the 10-year yield well into the danger zone at 4.73%. As I have written many times, recent history suggests that nothing good happens above 4.5%," he said.
Timmer said the rise in yields could stem from several factors.
One possibility is a reverse crowding-out effect, in which heavy financing demand from AI companies diverts investor appetite away from Treasuries rather than government borrowing squeezing out private investment.
Another explanation is skepticism that a hawkish Federal Reserve will back its rhetoric with meaningful action. A third is the impact of a less transparent Fed, since reduced clarity tends to increase uncertainty and push up risk premia.
"Less transparency means more uncertainty, and more uncertainty usually means high risk premia. Either way, we have a bear steepening on our hands," he said.
Rising bond yields can be a headwind for stocks and for emerging technologies such as cryptocurrencies.
SK Hynix plans $38 billion in AI memory investment
SK Hynix said Friday that it will invest 54 trillion won, or about $38 billion, to expand its chipmaking facilities in South Korea.
The company said it is building new fabs in Yongin and Cheongju to meet what it called the continuously growing demand for memory in the AI era.
The investment is one of the memory maker's largest single commitments to date. Its stock has been among the most volatile names in the AI trade this year, swinging the Kospi through sharp selloffs and a record U.S. listing.
For crypto, the move was another sign that AI infrastructure spending, which bitcoin has loosely tracked, continues to rise.
Bitcoin stays near $64,350 ahead of payrolls data, with oil back as a headwind
Bitcoin traded near $64,350 on Friday, unchanged on the week, as markets drifted ahead of the U.S. payrolls report, according to CoinDesk data. Ether held at $1,903, and most major cryptocurrencies were little changed, with traders waiting for the labor-market release.
The macro backdrop became a little less favorable overnight. Brent crude rose 1.4% to $83.61 after reports that Iran would try to restrict U.S. and Israeli ships through the Strait of Hormuz and demand compensation from countries it considers hostile before allowing them to pass, stalling the deal that had been helping push oil lower. Higher crude revives inflation concerns, keeping the Federal Reserve inclined toward tighter policy, and the U.S. 10-year yield rose seven basis points during the session.
That sequence has defined bitcoin's environment through the summer: higher oil feeds inflation, inflation keeps yields and the dollar firm, and tighter financial conditions cap risk assets. The dollar posted its best day in two weeks, the opposite of the easing setup bulls prefer.
The labor report was the key release. A soft reading would revive the case for easier policy and give bitcoin room above its recent range. A strong report, combined with rising oil, would give hawks another reason to hold rates steady and could keep the market in the same range that has held since May. Investors were being urged to watch the reaction in yields, not just the headline number.