NewsStocksMizuho Sees Broadcom Selloff as Buy Opportunity Ahead of Earnings

Mizuho Sees Broadcom Selloff as Buy Opportunity Ahead of Earnings

Author: Coincentral·

Key Takeaways

  • Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein says Broadcom's recent decline has created a contrarian buying opportunity around $370, with a risk-reward profile favoring upside over a six-month-plus horizon ahead of the September 2 earnings report.
  • Investor concerns center on Alphabet developing its own custom AI chips, which could reduce Broadcom's revenue from hyperscaler customers, though Klein believes the market has already priced in that risk and consensus pessimism has peaked.
  • Broadcom CEO Hock Tan has not delivered back-to-back negative earnings reactions in nearly 30 quarters, and Klein expects management to directly address the Google question and provide bullish 2027 and 2028 projections.
  • Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought roughly 57,705 Broadcom shares for about $20.6 million on Wednesday while selling approximately $18.2 million of AMD stock, and also purchased Cerebras and Cloudflare positions.
  • Broadcom shares historically move two to three times more than NVIDIA after earnings in either direction, and Mizuho named NVIDIA rather than Broadcom as its top semiconductor pick while disclosing no formal price target or rating.
Mizuho Sees Broadcom Selloff as Buy Opportunity Ahead of Earnings

Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein is bullish on Broadcom ahead of the company’s September 2 earnings report, saying the recent selloff has created a contrarian buying opportunity around $370.

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) has fallen in the mid-teens over the past two weeks, and Klein said the stock now presents an asymmetric setup. He noted that sentiment around AVGO is now the “total opposite” of where it was 90 days ago, when the shares went into early June earnings with strong momentum before dropping about 12% in a single day after a soft outlook.

The main concern weighing on the stock is Google. Investors are worried that Alphabet’s efforts to develop its own custom application-specific integrated circuits — chips designed for a single customer’s specific workloads rather than sold as general-purpose products — will reduce Broadcom’s revenue from hyperscaler customers, the large cloud operators that run the vast data centers behind AI services. Designing custom AI silicon for hyperscalers has become one of Broadcom’s most closely watched businesses alongside its networking chips, which is why the Google question matters so much to investors. Klein is not dismissing that risk, but he believes the market has already priced it in and then some. In his view, consensus has reached maximum pessimism, which often marks a turning point.

Hock Tan’s Track Record

A central part of Klein’s argument is Broadcom CEO Hock Tan’s history. Tan, a veteran dealmaker who built Broadcom into one of the world’s largest semiconductor companies through a long run of acquisitions, has not delivered back-to-back negative earnings reactions in nearly 30 quarters, or roughly seven years.

Klein also pointed to competitive pressure in the semiconductor sector. NVIDIA and Marvell Technology — the latter a Broadcom rival in custom AI silicon — both recently used their earnings calls to highlight acceleration in future revenue growth, and he argued that Tan is unlikely to allow those narratives to dominate the market discussion around Broadcom.

“No way he sits by and lets the shorts manhandle his stock,” Klein wrote in Mizuho’s note. He expects management to directly address concerns about potential Google share loss and to provide bullish forward projections for 2027 and 2028.

Klein is not predicting a sharp rally of 25%. Instead, he said the risk-reward profile near $370 favors more upside than downside over a six-month-plus horizon. NVIDIA remains Mizuho’s top semiconductor pick, with Broadcom presented as a secondary opportunity.

Cathie Wood Adds to Broadcom

ARK Invest, the exchange-traded fund firm founded by Cathie Wood, added to its Broadcom position on Wednesday, purchasing about 57,705 shares across multiple ETFs for roughly $20.6 million. At the same time, the firm sold about 37,977 AMD shares for approximately $18.2 million across four ETFs. ARK discloses its trades daily, which makes the moves a regularly watched window into how active managers are positioning across AI-related names.

That AMD sale followed another reduction earlier in the week, suggesting a continued shift in ARK’s exposure to AI-related chip names.

ARK also bought about $12.8 million of Cerebras stock and around $13.3 million of Cloudflare on the same day.

Broadcom’s earnings have historically been volatile. Mizuho noted that AVGO typically moves two to three times more than NVIDIA after results, in either direction, which makes the September 2 report a high-stakes event.

Investors will be watching for two things from Tan: clarity on the future of the Google ASIC relationship and specific revenue projections for fiscal 2027 and 2028 AI opportunities.

Mizuho did not disclose a formal price target or official rating on AVGO in the note.