Brent and WTI both fell about two dollars within the hour on the report, adding to a decline that has already pushed crude down roughly five percent from last week’s highs. The move matters because a large part of the recent oil premium has been tied to fears around the Strait of Hormuz, a route critical to global crude flows, so even unconfirmed headlines can quickly change the market’s tone. Even so, the reaction appears stretched relative to the strength of the sourcing behind it. A single wire citing unnamed foreign military and security contacts is a thin basis for a two-dollar repricing, and traders should be alert to a sharp reversal if the report fails to gain traction on other newswires or from Tehran’s state media in the hours ahead.

Oil is trading on a rumor, not a confirmed deal, and the sourcing so far does not match the size of the price move.

Brent and WTI both fell approximately two dollars per barrel within the past hour after Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported that a ceasefire had been agreed between the United States and Iran. The report also said the agreement included free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal announcement expected in the coming days.

According to RIA, the claim was based on accounts from Pakistani military and Iranian security sources. The report has not been corroborated by Reuters, Bloomberg, Associated Press, or any other major international wire, and it has not been confirmed by officials in Washington, Tehran, or the Gulf states. Iranian state outlets such as IRNA and Press TV, which have historically moved quickly to confirm developments favorable to Tehran, had not picked up the report as of writing.

Traders are treating the sourcing with caution. Russia is not a direct party to US-Iran negotiations, and it would be an unusual pattern for a Russian state outlet to be first to confirm a breakthrough in talks between Washington and Tehran. Pakistan has played a genuine mediating role in the conflict at several points, which lends some plausibility to the mention of Pakistani military contacts, but the chain of attribution remains several steps removed from any official confirmation.

Separately, market participants have noted that the CIA director is currently in Moscow. While the timing has drawn attention, there is no indication that the visit is connected to the substance of the RIA report, and it should not be read as corroborating evidence.

The price move comes on top of an already softening market. Crude had fallen for three consecutive sessions this week after a US sanctions package targeting Iran’s trading partners was viewed as less severe than markets had anticipated, and after reports emerged of separate Pakistani mediation efforts involving a proposal tied to the existing US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Against that backdrop, an unconfirmed ceasefire report landing on an already bearish market has amplified the price response.

Desks are watching for confirmation or denial from Western wires, US officials, or Iranian state media in the hours ahead. Given the narrow sourcing behind the claim, a failure to gain corroboration would raise the risk of a swift reversal of today’s move.