NewsMacroBLS Forecasts Slow Decade of U.S. Job Growth, With Healthcare Alone Accounting for Over a Third of New Jobs

BLS Forecasts Slow Decade of U.S. Job Growth, With Healthcare Alone Accounting for Over a Third of New Jobs

Author: Fortune Crypto·

Key Takeaways

  • •U.S. total employment is projected to grow only 3.5% from 2025 to 2035, adding 5.9 million jobs to reach 176.2 million, well below the previous decade's 10.9% growth rate.
  • •The utility industry is expected to be the fastest-hiring sector at 9.8% growth, driven largely by electricity demand from AI data centers, with solar power generation employment projected to rise 153%.
  • •Healthcare and social assistance will add 2.2 million jobs, a 9.5% increase accounting for 37% of all new jobs, fueled by an aging population and rising chronic health conditions.
  • •AI is expected to cut office and administrative support employment by 752,100 jobs, the largest decline of any major occupational group, while sales occupations fall 1.4%.
  • •Demand for tech talent remains strong despite AI fears, with data scientist roles projected to grow 34.6% and professional, scientific, and technical services adding 926,700 jobs.
BLS Forecasts Slow Decade of U.S. Job Growth, With Healthcare Alone Accounting for Over a Third of New Jobs

The U.S. labor market is preparing for a decade of slower overall growth, yet a select group of industries and occupations is on track to expand rapidly, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

From 2025 to 2035, total employment is projected to rise by 5.9 million jobs to 176.2 million, a growth rate of just 3.5%—a fraction of the 10.9% pace recorded during the previous decade, the BLS said in a report released late last month (PDF). The deceleration in part reflects demographic realities: the population and labor force are aging, leaving fewer new workers to fuel the kind of expansion seen in prior decades.

As the AI boom continues to ripple through the economy, the utility industry is expected to hire at the fastest rate, with employment growing 9.8%. The surge comes as hyperscalers scramble to build data centers that require immense amounts of electricity.

"Nearly all the job growth is expected from electric power generation, transmission, and distribution due to increasing demand for electricity, including artificial intelligence power demands," the BLS said.

Within that category, certain sub-sectors will see even larger employment gains: solar electric power generation is projected to grow 153%, and wind electric power generation 62%.

While utilities' additional hiring should translate to 58,800 jobs, that figure will be dwarfed by the healthcare and social assistance industry, which is set to expand employment by 2.2 million over the next decade. Healthcare will be the second-fastest hiring sector with a 9.5% growth rate and will account for 37% of all new jobs created through 2035.

"Strong employment growth is expected to stem from both the aging population and the increasing prevalence of chronic health conditions, such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes," the BLS said. The oldest members of the baby boom generation began turning 65 in 2011, and the Census Bureau projects that by 2030 every baby boomer will be at least 65 years old, underscoring the demographic tailwind behind care-related hiring.

Among individual occupations, nurse practitioners will see a 41% surge in employment, while medical and health services managers will jump 24%.

Despite fears that AI will wipe out employment in software and programming, tech talent will also be in high demand. The professional, scientific, and technical services industry is projected to be the third-fastest growing sector, up 8.6%, adding the second-most jobs of any industry at 926,700.

As businesses lean on AI tools to boost operations and decision-making, the number of data scientists is expected to grow 34.6%, while computer and information research scientists will increase 21.8%.

Those forecasts offer some reassurance to office workers after top AI leaders previously signaled that a jobs apocalypse was imminent. Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei have walked back some of their earlier prophecies, albeit ahead of blockbuster IPOs.

AI will still weigh on employment elsewhere, however. The office and administrative support sector is expected to see a 4% decline, or 752,100 jobs—the most of any major occupational group. The sales and related occupations sector will fall by 1.4% as e-commerce continues to expand and AI tools are further incorporated into business processes.

"Although the growing adoption of AI is expected to support demand for some occupations, associated productivity gains may dampen employment demand for others," the BLS said. "The use of generative AI software, which can be leveraged to automate repetitive tasks and speed up certain processes, may limit demand for some jobs in the arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupational group."

It is worth noting that the BLS publishes its employment projections as a baseline scenario built on current trends; they do not forecast business cycles or policy shifts, and past projections have sometimes been revised as technologies and the economy evolved differently than assumed.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.