Global wheat prices have hit record highs as escalating tensions in the Black Sea push buyers toward alternative origins to offset supply disruptions from Russia and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine together normally account for roughly a quarter or more of global wheat exports, which is why repeated attacks disrupting deep-sea exports from the region — stalling shipments and widening the gap in global supplies — have such outsized impact on world prices.

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the Milling Wheat Marker (MWM) at $214/mt on Sept. 1, amid low FOB demand and caution among ships operating from deep-sea ports. Alternative origins such as Australian APW are trading at a $98/mt premium to the MWM, while the CWRS FOB Vancouver price stands at a $117/mt premium as of Sept. 1 — peak levels last seen in 2023.

Market participants said that if exports remain constrained through the end of the year, Russian wheat shipments could fall below 40 million mt and Ukraine's wheat exports could total around 10 million mt.

Australian wheat at record high

Australian wheat prices rose amid the absence of Black Sea wheat supply to traditional destinations such as Southeast Asia and Bangladesh, the latter currently in its usual peak import period. The premium for Australian wheat reflects not just the supply gap but its freight advantage into Asian markets, where it competes most directly with Black Sea origins.

Platts' Australian Standard White with no protein guarantee assessment (ASW1) rose $35/mt to $301/mt FOB Kwinana on Sept. 1 since the intensification of drone attacks on ships and port infrastructure in the Black Sea on July 6 — the highest price since March 7, 2023. Meanwhile, Australian Premium White (APW) rose $40/mt over the same period to reach $312/mt FOB Kwinana on Sept. 1, the highest assessment level since March 29, 2023.

Most Southeast Asian buyers have switched to near-term September and October shipment of containerized wheat cargoes from Australia. Significant demand remains for November shipment onwards, keeping old and new crop price spreads stable, according to a Singapore wheat trader.

With the Australian wheat harvest taking place in spring and summer (September to February), farmer sales have been sluggish. "I think nobody wants to sell anyway, as everyone believes the market will continue to go up. Southeast Asia is already on November/December shipment coverage and will be waiting for further information on the harvest," said a Singapore-based miller source. How the harvest unfolds will help determine how much new Australian supply becomes available to displace missing Black Sea cargoes.

Uncertainty shifts demand to North America

The disruptions are also shifting the focus of demand to North America. Canadian and US market participants expect potential incremental buying into the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Vancouver, though tight nearby export capacity and elevated prices limit upside.

"I agree that the Black Sea situation is playing out in real time," one Canadian trader said. "I suspect PNW will get some low- to mid-protein business, and Vancouver will get hi-pro business."

Platts assessed CWRS 13.5% FOB Vancouver wheat at $331.34/mt on Sept. 1, the highest price since August 2023.

Canada enters the new marketing year with a strong export program. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimated 2025-26 wheat exports, excluding durum, at nearly 24 million mt — up 2% year on year and the highest on record — with a forecast of 23.45 million mt for 2026-27. Key destinations include Indonesia, China, Japan and the US. A record Canadian export program positions Vancouver as a key substitute origin for hi-protein wheat that Black Sea supply cannot typically replace.

Broader signs of demand have surfaced in recent weeks, including interest from Taiwan and China, Japanese MAFF purchases, demand from Bangladesh, and some European interest, traders said.

However, additional nearby export opportunities remain constrained by capacity: traders said October is repeatedly full or nearly full, and one participant said sellers were holding their basis despite the futures rally.

"Demand is really quiet at these levels," the trader said, adding that Asian buyers were lagging and "buyers remain reluctant to engage at these levels."

With greater uncertainty over Black Sea exports, traders will be watching how long alternative flows — especially from Australia and North America — can keep global tightness at bay. Key signposts ahead include the pace of Black Sea shipments through the end of the year, the size of the Australian harvest, and available export capacity at PNW and Vancouver ports.

Source: Platts