Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has outlined a scenario in which NEAR, the native token of the layer-1 NEAR Protocol, could climb to 40 times its current value by 2030. The firm's base-case outlook points to a price of $155.85 by 2030, while the maximum projection stands at $562.81 — more than 100 times the token's present value. Under the worst-case scenario, Hougan stated, the price could fall to $1.63.

The projections are laid out in a memo from Bitwise's investment team. Rather than a single point forecast, the memo frames its outlook as a set of scenarios, with each price target tied to explicit assumptions about network activity and valuation. Hougan noted that even a 40x to 50x surge would still leave NEAR valued below Ethereum's market value today — a meaningful benchmark, given that Ethereum ranks as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Against that backdrop, Milk Road Crypto posed the question: "Is it absurd to think that the fundamental layer on which agentic finance takes place is less valuable at maturity than Ethereum is today at the depths of the bear market?" In a post on X, Hougan's answer was definitive: "no, it is not absurd."

AI agents could create a new source of demand for NEAR

The investment thesis centers on autonomous AI agents capable of performing tasks and executing financial transactions without human intervention. Such systems would eventually handle payments, trading, service bookings, and digital asset management — activity that would also require infrastructure capable of moving money between applications over blockchains.

NEAR is positioning itself to serve that market through NEAR Intents, which allows users and applications to run transactions across different blockchains without dealing with the complexity on the user or application side. The protocol could become more valuable if AI agents increasingly rely on this infrastructure to exchange assets and settle payments. NEAR's chain abstraction technology is designed to let applications interact with assets across multiple networks, supporting the broader vision of an interconnected agent economy.

Hougan: NEAR can stand on its blockchain business

Bitwise's bullish view of NEAR is based on the potential revenue generated by transactions across the network. In its 2030 base-case scenario, the firm estimates that 328 million AI agents could each perform 1,000 transactions annually at an average cost of $5. Applying a 0.3% fee and a 50x valuation multiple produces the $155.85 base-case price.

Hougan believes NEAR does not need to dominate the AI agent economy for that long-term potential to hold. The network already runs an active blockchain business, and its AI ambitions represent another growth opportunity rather than the sole reason for its valuation. NEAR Intents has so far processed almost $30 billion in cross-chain transactions, meaning Bitwise's predictions are grounded in a proven concept rather than pure speculation. How that volume develops as agentic applications mature is one of the more direct gauges of whether the memo's assumptions are tracking toward its scenarios.

He also argued that transaction volume serves as a backstop for the NEAR token's thesis, since there is still room for success even if agentic finance fails or captures only a small share of the market. In his view, NEAR stands out among smaller-cap tokens by combining immediate practical applications with substantial upside potential — with its future AI ambitions amounting to a lucrative side bet rather than a necessity, he said.

Appearing alongside Hougan on The Rollup podcast, Sovere CEO Sal Ternullo added that the project appears to be reaching a point where user activity is more closely tied to the token's value.

Bitwise rolled out a spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca

At the end of September, Bitwise Asset Management, a crypto-focused asset manager, launched a spot NEAR ETF on NYSE Arca, giving US investors a way to hold the layer-1 token through a regulated investment vehicle and to stake it. The fund trades under the ticker NRR and charges investors a fee of 0.75% per year. The launch comes as US-listed spot crypto funds have broadened beyond the earliest bitcoin and ether products, extending regulated wrappers to a wider range of layer-1 assets.

Staking of the fund's underlying assets is carried out by Bitwise's internal staking team, according to the firm. Staking is a core mechanism of proof-of-stake networks like NEAR: tokens are pledged to help validate transactions and secure the network, earning rewards in return. On-chain data collected on September 25 showed an estimated annual staking yield of 5.3%. Those rewards may fluctuate and cannot be guaranteed, but they are reflected directly in the fund's net asset value. According to the firm's filed prospectus, 33% of the total NEAR earned goes to compensate staking agents, custodians, and Bitwise, leaving the trust with 67% of gross earnings.

The ETF gives investors another way to gain exposure to NEAR without directly purchasing and managing the token in a crypto wallet. Its staking feature offers an additional source of returns, but investors remain exposed to price swings and changes in staking rewards. The fund's performance will depend on NEAR's market price, and the annual management fee and its share of staking-related expenses will determine the returns investors ultimately receive.

Commenting on the fund, Hougan said at the time that there will be an increasing need for secure and independent settlement systems as AI agents become involved in various activities, such as booking and payments.