Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036, according to a revised long-term forecast from Bitwise Asset Management. The firm published the updated projection in an Oct. 28 report, raising its previous $1.3 million target despite Bitcoin's sharp correction in 2026. Bitwise projects a 34.3% compound annual growth rate for the asset over the next decade, but the report also identifies technological and regulatory risks that could undermine that outlook.

Bitwise Expects Bitcoin to Lead All Assets Over the Next Decade

According to Bitwise analysts, Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset of the coming ten years. They point to prevailing macroeconomic conditions, particularly rising sovereign debt in the United States and around the world, as well as weakening dominance of the U.S. dollar. The report notes that these macroeconomic trends have pushed investors toward hard assets, with Bitcoin among the principal beneficiaries.

The firm's track-record data underpins that expectation. Over the past five years, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset, delivering a gain of 1,069%. Gold followed in second place with a 174.01% advance over the same period.

Regulation also features in the firm's case. The analysts cite the supportive regulatory environment, best reflected in the Trump administration's treatment of the crypto industry. Beyond the United States, they observe that several jurisdictions — including Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and the Middle East — now offer greater regulatory clarity as well.

In Bitwise's assessment, that clarity has opened a pathway to institutional adoption. The report notes that almost all major financial institutions in the US now maintain a crypto initiative, and the analysts believe this combination of macroeconomic and regulatory factors will drive demand that, in turn, will translate into higher prices. For readers, that adoption detail matters because it describes the channels through which the demand the report anticipates would actually arrive.

On that basis, Bitwise projects a 34.3% compound annual growth rate for Bitcoin over the next 10 years. Notably, that figure is lower than the 63.5% rate the asset compounded over the past decade. That gap is the crux of the forecast: Bitwise's case rests on the macroeconomic and institutional drivers it identifies holding over a full decade, making the report's underlying assumptions — not its headline number — the element worth tracking.

Quantum Computing, AI Advances and Regulation Top the Risk List

Alongside its long-term projection, the Bitwise report identifies risks that investors must weigh. Chief among them is technical and quantum risk: Bitcoin is, at its core, a technology, and technologies carry inherent risks.

"For instance, the core technology behind bitcoin and many bitcoin wallets could be at risk if there are rapid advances in quantum computing," the report stated.

Bitwise's analysts add that even without quantum computing, AI-driven advancements in mathematics could likewise impact Bitcoin. They note that the Bitcoin blockchain would inevitably have to upgrade to a new quantum-resistant — or maths-resistant — cryptography to address such threats. Any concrete movement toward such a cryptographic upgrade would be the clearest development to watch on this front.

Regulatory concerns rank alongside the technological ones. Although the crypto industry currently enjoys a hospitable regulatory environment, the report cautions that this certainty is not guaranteed. Congress's failure to pass the Clarity Act means most crypto rules in the United States rest on federal agency regulations, and a change in administration could turn that situation around and reshape the environment. Legislative progress on the Clarity Act is therefore the most direct indicator to monitor, since congressional action would move rulemaking beyond federal agencies.

The analysts also flag Bitcoin's limited track record as a risk in its own right. The flagship crypto asset has not existed for more than two decades, and both tracing of the asset and its institutional adoption are even more recent developments.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve substantial volatility and the potential for losses. Long-term forecasts are inherently uncertain, and readers should conduct independent research before investing.

Source: The Market Periodical