Bitcoin is working to regain its footing after a bruising week, and a widely followed analyst believes the worst may already be behind it, even though the last two US midterm elections preceded steep downturns.

BTC dropped from the $81,000 to $82,000 region on October 29 and slid toward $76,000 before buyers stepped back in. The asset now trades close to $78,300, and Michaël van de Poppe argues the setup points to a strong run toward year-end. Past midterm cycles, however, offer bulls little reassurance.

History Is Not on Bitcoin’s Side

After the 2018 US midterm election, BTC fell from roughly $6,400 to near $3,200 within weeks. In 2022, the vote landed in the same week FTX collapsed, and Bitcoin sank to around $15,500 days later. Both episodes unfolded fast, and van de Poppe nonetheless believes this time could play out differently.

Why Van de Poppe Expects a Post-Midterm Rally

Writing on X, the analyst said he is “extremely bullish on Bitcoin from here.” He had earlier predicted a “Sell the rumor, Buy the news” setup around the midterm outcome — the mirror image of the classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” playbook — and now contends the market has bottomed after the latest sweep of the lows.

His argument centers on political calm. “All economic markets fare well with a calm electorate, not by a wild president doing tricks day in, day out,” he wrote. In his view, constant policy surprises from the White House had made risk nearly impossible to price. With the balance of power back in equilibrium after the midterm election, investors can start pricing risk again.

He also pushed back on the idea of a post-election pullback. “I don’t think we’ll see a correction after the midterms,” he said, adding that with Trump as an outlier president, “it might also be the case that we’ve already seen the correction.”

In a separate post, the analyst laid out a wider macro case. He expects Brent oil to fall below $96, Treasury yields to drop, tech stocks to recover and the US dollar to weaken. A softer dollar and lower yields tend to favor risk assets, and he sees that backdrop lifting Bitcoin in the weeks ahead.

Bitcoin ETFs Extend Outflow Streak to Three Days

Spot Bitcoin ETFs — funds that hold bitcoin directly, trade like stocks through ordinary brokerage accounts, and whose daily net-flow tallies are widely tracked as a barometer of demand — recorded $115.56 million in net outflows on November 3, according to SoSoValue data. That followed $398.62 million in outflows on November 2 and $643.33 million on October 30. The three-day streak pulled about $1.16 billion out of the funds, with daily redemptions tapering from the October 30 peak.

Cumulative net inflows fell from $57.62 billion on October 29 (the last day of inflows) to $56.47 billion, a sharp swing from the run of allocations recorded through that date.

Van de Poppe expects “some interesting ETF flows” in the coming week, and a return to inflows would give any Bitcoin recovery a much firmer footing.

Can Bitcoin Form a Higher Low and Resume Its Uptrend?

Van de Poppe’s call hinges on one condition. “If Bitcoin prints a higher low here, I would assume that we’re going to print a weekly green candle and are going to see a strong run towards the end of the year,” he said. In charting terms, a higher low forms when a pullback bottoms above the previous swing low, and a green candle simply marks a week that closes higher than it opened.

His 4-hour chart shows BTC consolidating between $76,500 and $78,800 since the October 29 breakdown. Buyers have defended the $76,258 to $76,520 zone several times, making it the first spot to watch on any pullback. Below it, $74,955 lines up with the September low and stands out as the deeper floor. A break there would put $71,557 to $71,984 in play.

The Road to a Year-End Rally

Bitcoin now sits just below two resistance blocks at $78,814 and $79,613, and van de Poppe wants both levels to flip into support. A clean break above $79,613, followed by a successful retest, could push the price to $81,230 and then $83,031.

A rejection would tell a different story. If BTC fails in that zone and falls under $76,258, it could head back to $74,955, putting the higher-low thesis at risk.

For now, the setup rests on two things: a high-volume close above $79,613 and a return to positive ETF flows. If both materialize, the year-end rally van de Poppe expects would break the pattern of weak post-midterm months seen in 2018 and 2022.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial volatility and potential losses. Readers should conduct independent research before making investment decisions.

This article originally appeared on The Market Periodical.