Bitcoin is showing a clear split between the behavior of large holders and retail investors as traders prepare for the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.

According to analyst Crypto Patel, Binance data show that BTC deposits by whales fell 44% in June, while deposits from smaller investors declined 22%.

Small investors have been depositing nearly twice as much Bitcoin as whales, suggesting that whales are not unloading their coins ahead of the Fed’s decision. Bitcoin was trading at $64,813.60, leaving market participants focused on whether current positioning reflects caution rather than a broader shift in conviction.

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Binance Data Shows a Shift in Market Structure

Between January and July 2026, Binance tracked deposit changes in 30-day periods, offering a view into shifting market sentiment.

During the first half of the year, deposits from regular users were mostly in the $11 billion to $13 billion range, while whale deposits were around $3 billion to $4 billion. Whale deposits rose to $8 billion to $9 billion in February as the price fell amid heavy selling.

As Bitcoin recovered by April, whale deposits eased. Another wave of activity arrived in early June, but deposits from both whales and regular users declined afterward, underscoring how trading activity has moderated into the Fed meeting window.

ETF Outflows Add to Market Caution

Institutional sentiment weakened last week. According to Farside Investors, U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds lost $240 million on Friday and another $225 million on Thursday, ending a seven-day streak of inflows.

More than $500 million in inflows from the previous week were reversed, although BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for nearly $415 million in inflows. Despite the outflows, Bitcoin ETFs ended the week with a modest net gain of about $34 million.

For readers tracking the market’s institutional side, ETF flows often serve as one of the clearest short-term gauges of demand, so the reversal adds context to why traders are treating the Fed meeting as a near-term catalyst rather than relying on recent inflow momentum alone.

Fed Meeting Becomes the Next Catalyst

Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, said the ETF selling reflected short-term risk reduction rather than panic selling. He said rising geopolitical tensions, oil prices above $100, and growing expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy encouraged institutions to temporarily reduce exposure.

Levin said he expects institutional demand to recover if macroeconomic uncertainty continues to ease. He identified the $65,000 level as a key market signal, saying:

If Monday closes above it on volume, institutions are repositioning into the reset. If it cracks, they’re waiting for better macro certainty.

He added that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting will likely determine the next direction for institutional capital, saying:

The Fed meeting on July 28-29 is the next important filter once inflows resume. Right now we’re just trading off geopolitical noise. Capital doesn’t move without knowing if rates actually come down.

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This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.