On-chain and ETF data point to renewed buying pressure among large Bitcoin holders, offering a buffer against disappointment over the stalled progress of the CLARITY Act, which aims to clarify whether digital assets are regulated as securities or commodities and passed the House Financial Services Committee earlier this year.

Blockchain data tracked by Santiment shows that whales and sharks — wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC — have accumulated over 20,000 BTC, worth approximately $1.2 billion at current market prices, since July 29. The accumulation has occurred in a narrow price range below $65,000, where the market has been trading choppily in recent sessions. Accumulation by large holders during extended price consolidation has long been monitored by on-chain analysts as a gauge of positioning ahead of potential volatility.

"With the pattern of key stakeholders accumulating and small holders dumping, the probability of $70K+ BTC becomes more and more probable compared to the likelihood of sub-$60K," Santiment said on X.

The firm explained that these diverging trends — large holders buying while smaller holders sell — are connected to the Coldcard hardware wallet hack that began on July 30 and has reportedly allowed the hacker to walk away with $120 million in bitcoin. The exploit has drawn attention to supply-chain risks in the hardware wallet sector, where compromised devices can drain funds without breaking cryptographic protections. Santiment added that uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY Act and stagnant price action have also contributed to apathy among smaller holders.

ETF Inflows Signal Tentative Institutional Recovery

U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in $754.69 million in investor funds this week, according to data source SoSoValue, putting them on track for their strongest week since April. The funds, which launched in January after SEC approval, have become a primary conduit for institutional Bitcoin exposure.

"The clearest shift has come in institutional flows," said Liya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo, explaining the ETF inflows. "Spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken in more than half a billion dollars so far in August, with inflows building through the week and Wednesday alone contributing over $240 million — a sharp reversal from June, when the funds recorded their worst month on record."

June's outflows coincided with broad selling pressure that included the German government's liquidation of seized bitcoin and the commencement of Mt. Gox creditor repayments, both of which added to spot market supply.

Despite the on-chain and ETF accumulation, BTC's spot price has not yet staged a meaningful rally. According to Kalchev, that is a revealing signal about the type of buyer currently entering the market.

"That the reversal has not yet lifted price meaningfully is itself informative: some desks argue the marginal buyer looks more tactical than convicted, and that a genuine recovery narrative likely needs a decisive close above $65,000 to take hold," Kalchev explained.

CLARITY Act Stalls in Senate

BTC's price chart patterns point to the potential for a notable rally. However, the U.S. Senate is unlikely to vote on the CLARITY Act this month, presenting a headwind. The legislation is widely viewed as a catalyst that could unlock a massive institutional bid for cryptocurrencies by giving regulated entities clearer guidelines on digital asset custody, trading, and market structure.

Analysts maintain that a decisive close above $65,000 is needed to establish a sustained recovery narrative for Bitcoin.