Bitcoin (BTC) entered the third week of September below key weekly support levels as traders monitored several potential volatility catalysts.

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday amid persistent inflation and a growing squeeze in oil prices. A day earlier, the Senate is scheduled to vote on whether to advance the crypto-focused CLARITY Act, making the measure a central policy event for digital-asset markets.

Bitcoin ended the previous week below its 50-week moving average near $77,400. However, a bullish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) remained in place.

Fed expected to raise rates despite pressure from Trump

The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision is likely to set the tone for risk-asset traders. Against a backdrop of elevated inflation and cautious comments from Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed is broadly expected to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%.

That expectation persists despite several officials favoring a hold at the current level. The situation resembles the Fed’s July meeting, when policymakers left rates unchanged even as several voices argued for an increase. Warsh is also facing pressure from US President Donald Trump, who has called not only for the central bank to avoid a hike but also to cut rates.

Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a 13.3% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the time of writing. One week earlier, the implied probability of a pause was above 40%, but it declined after recent inflation data and oil-price increases linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Fed target-rate probability comparison for the September FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) readings did not produce major upside surprises. However, the market’s hawkish response pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel, while the supply crisis showed no clear sign of ending.

CFDs on WTI crude oil, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned that the resulting energy shock could be severe. It said 30 million barrels per day would be unable to transit through the Strait of Hormuz or Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, while the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was also at risk.

“Even after accounting for some overlap between these routes, the scale of the potential disruption is enormous relative to the ~100 million barrel per day global oil market,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a post on X.

The group also pointed to rising inflation expectations among US consumers. Consumers expect prices to increase by 4.6% over the next year, or 1.1% more than they expected at the beginning of 2026. Gas prices and trade tariffs were among the issues cited most frequently.

US consumer inflation expectations data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X.com

CLARITY Act revision heads toward Senate vote

The Senate’s CLARITY Act vote is scheduled for Tuesday, one day before the Fed’s interest-rate announcement. US officials are debating a revised version of the legislation as part of bipartisan negotiations intended to establish a clearer legal framework for the crypto industry in the United States.

On Monday, Senate Republicans released what they described as their “last, best and final offer” for the bill’s text. Senator Cynthia Lummis released the updated 635-page proposal in an official announcement.

“After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready,” Lummis said. “President Trump voluntarily agreed to unprecedented ethics restrictions, holding every federally elected official, judge, and their spouses to some of the toughest ethics restrictions in US history.”

The CLARITY Act faces a procedural vote at 2:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday and requires 60 votes to pass. If approved in its current form, it can proceed to the Senate floor for debate. The vote’s outcome could produce short-term volatility, although the legislation would still need to advance through subsequent stages before becoming law.

“A no vote on Tuesday means opposing real ethics reforms on politicians’ personal investments, handing American leadership in digital assets to our foreign competitors, and leaving Americans with zero protections in the digital asset markets,” Lummis added.

Tyler Williams, a crypto policy insider and former crypto adviser to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, expressed confidence about the vote’s prospects in a Saturday discussion with podcast host Kyle Chasse.

“What are the odds? I think they are better than they have ever been. We are closer — we are on the precipice of this becoming law,” Williams said.

However, the Polymarket contract on the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 continued to assign a low probability to that outcome. At the time of writing, the implied chance was 34%. Higher odds were last recorded at the beginning of August.

Betting odds for the CLARITY Act passing into law. Source: Polymarket

Open interest declines ahead of the two events

Recent market data suggests that traders have reduced their exposure ahead of Tuesday’s CLARITY Act vote and Wednesday’s Fed announcement.

Crypto sentiment platform Santiment examined changes in open interest (OI) across exchanges and said market positioning indicated that traders had already prepared for potential volatility around both events.

“Everyone is watching Tuesday’s cloture vote and Wednesday’s Fed. The positioning data says the market already made its move,” Santiment commented on X on Monday.

According to Santiment, OI measured in BTC terms — calculated by dividing US dollar-denominated OI by Bitcoin’s price — declined 13.5% during the week ending Sept. 11. The figure fell from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC before recovering only modestly. During the same period, Bitcoin’s spot price declined 5%.

“Positioning sits about 20% below where it was before the mid-August rally,” Santiment added.

Bitcoin open-interest data. Source: Santiment

Funding rates continue to reflect a change from bearish positioning

Funding rates have gradually increased as BTC/USD trades near $80,000, according to research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.

Aggregate funding rates across exchanges have risen since the end of May, following the conclusion of a negative-rate period that began in early March. Funding rates indicate the balance between long and short positions in derivatives markets.

“After a disbelief phase, during which funding rates reflected one of the most bearish sentiments ever seen in Binance derivatives, the buildup of shorts that followed a -52% drawdown ended up fueling May’s rally,” CryptoQuant wrote in a Sunday blog post.

“It’s particularly interesting to observe how this bearish consensus has consistently shown up whenever Bitcoin was nearing the end of a correction,” the firm added.

CryptoQuant data shows that negative cumulative 30-day funding rates on Binance have appeared during the final stages of Bitcoin bear markets and during major corrections within bull markets.

Bitcoin 30-day summed funding rates on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Cointelegraph previously reported on the continued lack of spot-market participation in Bitcoin’s recent advance. That analysis warned that momentum led by derivatives markets might not persist.

Bitcoin loses weekly support

Bitcoin failed to defend a key support level at Sunday’s weekly close, finishing at approximately $76,800.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital said on Sunday that Bitcoin needed to hold $78,300 at the weekly close. A failure to do so, he warned, could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to repeating its failed breakout from early May.

In an accompanying post on X, Rekt Capital’s chart showed BTC/USD continuing to form lower highs, preserving the long-term bear-market structure.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Bitcoin also closed below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), located at $77,380. Rekt Capital described that trend line as a level Bitcoin would need to reclaim as part of a sustainable bullish trend change. He identified the 21-week EMA at $72,270 as the next key level for buyers to defend.

“Both of these EMAs tend to act as support in a Bull Market. So if they can’t hold sustainably as support then that would be a confirmation of the trend not being in a full-blown Bull Cycle yet,” he told X followers.

Despite the weekly decline, the close preserved a bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s weekly RSI. The indicator has continued to record higher lows through 2026.

BTC/USD one-week chart with 21- and 50-week EMAs and RSI. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView