Bitcoin is tracking its weakest October in six years, with prices sitting below September's close as soft United States spot demand adds pressure. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports that the Coinbase Premium remained negative throughout the month, while its Bull Score Index dropped from 90 to 60, signaling cooler market conditions. Traders are now watching the Federal Reserve for the next cue on risk assets.

Monthly Losses Extend Toward Weakest October Since 2020

Bitcoin traded near $80,800 on Wednesday, according to market data. The asset closed September at roughly $83,567, leaving BTC down about 4% for the month, per CoinCodex Bitcoin pricing.

October has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin — a seasonal pattern traders often nickname "Uptober" — and on-chain figures show an average October gain of 18.1% since 2020. Bitcoin lost 3.8% in October 2025, however, and another down month would extend that streak, marking the weakest October since 2020.

According to CryptoQuant's October post, the price weakness has coincided with limited buying, and demand has struggled to absorb selling. That leaves the tape open to further swings while traders await the Fed's decision.

Negative Coinbase Premium Points to Soft US Demand

CryptoQuant said Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium stayed negative throughout October. The gauge compares Bitcoin's price on Coinbase with prices on offshore exchanges, including Binance. A negative reading means Bitcoin trades at a discount on Coinbase relative to the comparison market. The metric is closely watched as a proxy for US-based buying appetite.

According to a CryptoQuant Coinbase Premium analysis, the premium hit roughly -0.146, its lowest reading since late June. The October average stood at -0.093, about three times the magnitude of September's average.

Bull Score Falls as Market Conditions Cool

CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60, a sharp shift in the firm's read on market conditions. The index blends ten gauges to judge Bitcoin's broader regime.

A reading of 60 does not, by itself, confirm a bear market. CryptoQuant said six of the ten gauges remained bullish, and a move below 50 would mark a clearer shift in that classification.

Short-term holders have also seen their profit cushion shrink. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin traded about 8.1% above the realized price for coins held one to three months as of October 26, down from 33.4% on September 22. Realized price serves as an on-chain estimate of the cost basis for coins in a given age band, which is why the narrowing gap matters. Thinner unrealized gains can leave those holders more sensitive to further declines.

Fed Decision Puts Macro Conditions in Focus

The Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting wraps up according to the Federal Reserve's October calendar, with a policy statement and press conference on the schedule. The FOMC sets the target range for the federal funds rate, the benchmark interest rate that feeds into broader financial conditions, which is why traders parse the decision and policymakers' comments for clues on rates and risk appetite.

A policy tone that looks open to risk-taking could lift sentiment, while a tougher outlook could add pressure, though neither path locks in a Bitcoin price move. For now, Bitcoin faces a down month, soft relative US spot demand, and a lower Bull Score. Whether those conditions hold after the Fed's call may decide whether October closes with another loss or a late rebound.