Investors who measure Bitcoin (BTC) against government bonds are facing the stiffest competition in 24 years, according to a report published by COINOTAG on October 12, 2026.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5.35% last week, while the 30-year yield reached roughly 5.7% — levels the US bond market last offered in 2002, the report noted. A fresh reading of the ISM services index was also cited as part of the macro backdrop.

The Yield Backdrop

US Treasury yields serve as the benchmark "risk-free" rate for global finance, anchoring borrowing costs across mortgages, corporates, and sovereigns. When yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding assets that produce no cash flow — a category that includes Bitcoin — increases, because investors can capture those returns without taking on the credit risk of a private issuer.

Yields above 5% on the 10-year Treasury are historically rare. Before last week's climb, the US bond market had not offered comparable levels since 2002, highlighting how restrictive current conditions are relative to the low-rate era that has dominated much of the past two decades. For Bitcoin, that makes the 5.35% level on the 10-year a direct reference point for the asset's opportunity cost.

What the ISM Services Reading Signals

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) compiles its services index monthly, and it is among the most closely watched gauges of US economic activity, given that services make up the bulk of US output. Resilient readings are generally interpreted as evidence that the economy can absorb tighter monetary policy, which can reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated — a dynamic that tends to keep bond yields high. Because the index is published monthly, upcoming ISM releases — alongside Federal Reserve rate decisions — offer a recurring checkpoint on whether the conditions underpinning elevated yields persist.

Context for Bitcoin

Bitcoin pays no interest or dividends; its investment case has traditionally rested on scarcity, with its supply capped at 21 million coins, rather than on yield. When government bonds deliver mid-single-digit percentage returns backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, the relative appeal of non-yielding digital assets weakens for yield-sensitive portfolios.

This content was first published on COINOTAG: https://en.coinotag.com/bitcoin-btc-treasury-yields-24-year-high-5-35