Bitcoin Magazine Bitcoin’s Volatility May Be Down But Expect a ‘Meaningful Move’ Soon, Says Fidelity

Bitcoin has been unusually quiet in recent weeks, and according to asset manager Fidelity, the cryptocurrency’s volatility is now lower than 98.5% of all days in its 17-year history.

Writing on X, the firm’s digital asset arm also said spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019. Spot volume tracks how much bitcoin actually changes hands on exchanges, so readings last seen in 2019 underscore how subdued participation has become.

Bitcoin’s price has been nearly unchanged over the past 30 days, with some analysts saying the bottom is likely in. The asset was recently trading at $65,329, nearly 50% below the all-time high it reached in October 2025.

Update: BTC volatility is now lower than ~98.5% of all days in its history. Meanwhile, spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019. Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move… — Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) August 19, 2026

Update: BTC volatility is now lower than ~98.5% of all days in its history. Meanwhile, spot trading volume has fallen to its lowest level since 2019. Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move…

“Think of it like a coiled spring: The longer volatility remains compressed, the greater the potential for a meaningful move once it breaks,” Fidelity Digital Assets wrote. Notably, the firm did not indicate a direction — the potential move it flagged could resolve either way.

The asset manager also referenced a post from earlier this month, saying that although volatility has declined, such “periods of compression don’t tend to last forever.”

On Tuesday, investment manager VanEck said bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility had fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% in the prior month and less than half of bitcoin’s long-run average of roughly 80%. Realized volatility measures an asset’s actual price fluctuations over a trailing window — in this case 30 days — expressed on an annualized basis. At 27.2%, bitcoin’s realized volatility is moving closer to the long-run range of major equity benchmarks such as the S&P 500, which has historically run between the mid-teens and roughly 20% annualized.

VanEck added that, based on the duration of previous cycles, it sees a bottom potentially forming anywhere between September and November of this year.

Bitcoin’s price swings have moderated over time, and 2025 was the least volatile year for bitcoin, according to a December report from digital asset research firm K33 Research. The firm predicted that 2026 would see the largest and oldest digital asset outperform both gold and equities in terms of gains.

Following the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in 2024, bitcoin became available to a new class of investors. Fidelity itself was among the first movers, launching its Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) when US spot bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024. More cautious retail investors, previously deterred by cold storage, can now buy the asset through brokerage accounts. Institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds and banks can also gain bitcoin exposure through the ETFs.

As bitcoin’s market capitalization has grown, its volatility has declined significantly, and the asset now experiences less dramatic price swings than in the past.

So far, bitcoin’s bear market is the shallowest in its 16-year history.

This post Bitcoin’s Volatility May Be Down But Expect a ‘Meaningful Move’ Soon, Says Fidelity first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Mathew Di Salvo .