Bitcoin is flirting with a historical first that bulls probably don't want to hear about: two consecutive years of losses, something the cryptocurrency has never experienced in its 18-year history. The world's largest cryptocurrency finished 2025 down 6.34% and has shed another 15.65% so far in 2026, trading around $73,850 on November 10. If it fails to recover above its annual opening price of roughly $87,500 before December 31, it will close two calendar years in the red for the first time. The combined decline across the two years comes to roughly 21% after compounding, since each year's loss is calculated on an already diminished base — far gentler than its 74% crash in 2018 or its 64% drop in 2022 — though the drawdown from the 2025 peak has been considerably deeper than the calendar-year numbers suggest.

Historical annual returns show that Bitcoin has experienced several brutal crashes since its creation, but each negative calendar year has been followed by a positive one. Even the disastrous 2018 and 2022 bear markets failed to produce consecutive annual losses.

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The historical pattern is clear. Its significance, however, deserves a closer look.

Two reds are not too red

Bitcoin's previous annual crashes were considerably more painful than its current losing streak. The cryptocurrency plunged 73.56% in 2018 and another 64.27% in 2022, wiping out most of investors' holdings in each respective year.

By comparison, Bitcoin's 6.34% decline in 2025 was relatively mild. Add the roughly 16% loss recorded this year, and the combined decline comes to approximately 21% after accounting for compounding. That is a fraction of the losses investors endured in previous crypto winters, despite the market potentially recording a longer sequence of negative annual returns.

Bitcoin's performance in 2024 also provides perspective. The cryptocurrency surged more than 120% that year, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of 2024 would still be sitting on substantial gains despite the subsequent decline.

The picture changes considerably when losses are measured from the market's actual peak rather than calendar-year boundaries. Bitcoin reached approximately $126,000 in October 2025 before crashing below $58,000 during 2026 — a decline exceeding 50%, a significantly more painful move than the 21% combined loss reflected in the two annual candlesticks.

Analysts have pointed to Bitcoin's increasingly institutional investor base, spot exchange-traded funds — a vehicle class that began trading in the United States in January 2024, putting Bitcoin exposure inside ordinary brokerage accounts — and deeper market liquidity as potential explanations for its comparatively smaller bear-market drawdowns. Those structural changes may help explain why the current market cycle looks different from previous ones, although they have not eliminated major price crashes.

There is also a distinction between the length of a losing streak and the severity of losses. A market can decline slowly over several calendar years without inflicting the same damage as a single catastrophic year. And Bitcoin has already demonstrated that a bad year doesn't necessarily translate into a prolonged downturn: the cryptocurrency gained roughly 92% in 2019 following its 2018 collapse and surged more than 155% in 2023 after its disastrous 2022 performance.

For now, Bitcoin has 50 days left in 2026 to avoid its first back-to-back annual losses. A third consecutive decline in 2027 would extend the streak further, but that scenario remains hypothetical. At its November 10 price of approximately $73,850, Bitcoin would need to gain about 18.5% to recover its 2026 opening price and finish the year in positive territory.