Corporate Bitcoin purchases could accelerate toward the end of 2026 and into 2027 if the cryptocurrency rallies, according to analysts, though investors are likely to be far more selective about which treasury companies they choose to finance. Treasury companies are listed firms that hold bitcoin on their corporate balance sheets, typically financed by issuing stock or taking on debt.

The outlook follows a broad slowdown in Bitcoin treasury buying in the third quarter. Strategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by a net 1,666 BTC in Q3, down sharply from 83,901 BTC in Q2, according to company filings. Other public companies added a net 5,617 BTC over the same period, compared with 45,725 BTC in the previous quarter, according to figures supplied by Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, Rasmussen said he expects a re-acceleration of corporate Bitcoin purchases to begin as early as this year. Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex, said renewed buying could follow if treasury companies regain premiums to the value of their Bitcoin holdings, but cautioned that investors have become more selective since the 2025 treasury boom.

Those premiums sit at the center of the model: when a company's shares trade above the value of its bitcoin holdings, issuing stock lets it raise fresh capital and grow its bitcoin-per-share count, while a faded premium closes off that funding channel. “Shareholders have seen premiums collapse and some companies sell into weakness. Investors are now pricing these businesses on funding costs, balance-sheet discipline and bitcoin per share,” said Kooner. “A rally could therefore restart buying, particularly among companies with credible financing structures but a return to last year’s indiscriminate capital raising looks unlikely.”

Established Bitcoin treasuries may get first access to capital

Bitwise’s October market report also recorded a decline in the number of Bitcoin treasuries in Q3, driven by smaller companies abandoning their Bitcoin treasury strategies. Rasmussen said a dozen companies that entered during the 2025 treasury boom sold their entire holdings, mostly to repay debt or return cash to shareholders after their stock premiums evaporated.

If buying resumes, Kooner expects established players to attract capital first. “Initially, capital would likely gravitate towards established players, which have the scale, the liquidity in their own securities and the track record investors now demand,” he said.

Rasmussen added that most of the largest corporate buyers outside Strategy were operating businesses adding Bitcoin from cash flow rather than issuing stock to fund purchases — a dynamic he described as “a smaller source of demand but a healthier one.”

Kooner, meanwhile, cautioned that a broader resurgence of new treasury companies could emerge only after a rally is well underway. “A broad wave of new listings would most likely arrive late in a rally, once premiums have widened and that timing is itself a warning sign,” he said.

Bitcoin ETFs could support recovery without a treasury boom

Even without another corporate Bitcoin buying boom, Rasmussen said there will be other drivers for a Bitcoin recovery, pointing to $6.4 billion in spot Bitcoin net inflows in Q3. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold the asset directly, and their flows are a widely followed gauge of institutional demand. “Corporate purchases are one source demand for bitcoin, but not the only source,” he said.

Kooner agreed that ETF demand could sustain the recovery for a period, but cautioned that some activity reflects basis trades that can unwind quickly. Basis trades are positions that seek to capture the spread between an asset’s spot and futures prices. “Without corporate buying, the market loses a price-insensitive bid and becomes more dependent on allocators who rebalance with macro conditions,” he said.

Recent flows show that ETF demand can reverse. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $229 million in net outflows last week, their second consecutive week of net withdrawals, according to SoSoValue data. The indicators to watch from here, based on the analysts’ comments, are the premiums at which treasury shares trade and the direction of weekly ETF flows.

Source: Cointelegraph