Analysts have suggested that an expansion of the US Treasury Department's bond repurchase program could help Bitcoin reach its target level sooner in the current market cycle.

Mark Connors, Chief Investment Officer and macroeconomics analyst at Risk Dimensions, argued that if the Treasury's actions ease pressure on long-term US Treasury bond yields, the result could be strong upside potential for Bitcoin.

The buyback program, which the Treasury relaunched in 2024 as its first regular schedule of repurchases since 2002, is designed to support liquidity in the Treasury market by purchasing older, off-the-run securities. The scale of the operations is set out in the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcements, making those statements a recurring checkpoint for markets tracking how large the program may become.

According to Connors, such a development could allow Bitcoin to reach its current market cycle target of $180,000 earlier than expected. Should favorable macroeconomic conditions emerge, he believes Bitcoin could gain momentum and eventually move into a long-term price range of $180,000 to $360,000.

Macroeconomic developments have been exerting a growing influence on Bitcoin's price movements recently. US Treasury yields, monetary policy expectations, and global liquidity conditions are among the factors that directly affect investor demand for risky assets. As a result, the Treasury's debt management policies are closely monitored by participants in the cryptocurrency market.

Connors also pointed to the CLARITY Act, a bill aimed at regulating the cryptocurrency market in the US, as a significant variable in the short term. The legislation, which would divide oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, passed the House of Representatives in July 2025 with bipartisan support and now awaits action in the Senate. He specifically noted that any progress around September 15th will be closely watched by the market, adding that regulatory clarity could strengthen institutional investors' interest in Bitcoin.

Taken together, the analyst's assessments suggest that a new surge in Bitcoin's price could depend not only on developments specific to the cryptocurrency market, but also on the course of US economic and debt policy. In the near term, that places the Treasury's upcoming refunding announcements and the Senate's handling of the CLARITY Act among the decisions and dates the market will be watching.

*This is not investment advice.