Bitcoin is testing short-term investor conviction near $76,000 as recent selling reduces profits among holders who bought during its rally, with the asset recovering to approximately $77,961 on November 1 after defending the $76,000–$77,000 support zone.

Analyst Darkfost highlighted the development in a post on X. According to the analysis, the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV is approaching 1 after exceeding 1.18 in September — a shift indicating that recent buyers are nearing their average purchase price. Bitcoin, meanwhile, traded near $77,961 on November 1, showing early signs of recovery.

STH MVRV Approaches Neutral as Profits Shrink

Darkfost noted that short-term holders recorded their highest profits in more than a year as Bitcoin advanced. Their average cost basis has climbed from approximately $67,500 in mid-August to around $76,000 — placing recent buyers' average entry within the same $76,000–$77,000 zone where spot demand recently defended the price.

In on-chain analytics, short-term holders are commonly defined as wallets that acquired their coins within roughly the past 155 days, a cohort whose collective cost basis frequently serves as a reference point for how recent demand is positioned.

The STH MVRV compares Bitcoin's market value with the realized value of recently acquired coins. Readings above 1 point to unrealized profits among short-term holders, while values below 1 signal losses. The indicator exceeded 1.18 in late September, reaching its highest level since July 2025. Its latest drift toward 1, however, indicates recent buyers are closing in on their average purchase price — the point at which unrealized gains largely disappear.

Darkfost said this level could trigger additional buying or further selling, depending on investor conviction.

Bitcoin Recovers Toward $78K After Recent Decline

The four-hour Binance chart shows Bitcoin falling from approximately $86,000 in early October. Selling intensified around October 30, pushing BTC below $80,000 and briefly toward $76,000 before buyers stepped in to defend the $76,000–$77,000 region.

Bitcoin reached $77,961.14 on November 1, gaining $149.18, or 0.19%, on the latest candle.

Early Momentum Signals Emerge

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed to 44.03, moving above its average of 37.00. Nevertheless, it remains below the 50 threshold — a level commonly used to delineate bullish from bearish momentum — leaving stronger bullish confirmation outstanding.

The MACD line reached -685.41, above the signal line at -768.79, and its histogram turned positive at 83.38, indicating improving short-term momentum. Both lines, however, remain below zero, the region generally associated with prevailing downward momentum.

Key Levels Ahead

Bitcoin faces initial resistance around $78,000, followed by $80,000 and $82,000. A decline below $76,000 could expose the $74,000 level. Darkfost said it remains unclear whether short-term holders will buy more or capitulate, making the $76,000 area — where recent buyers' average cost basis now sits — the focal point for observing how that cohort responds.