Bitcoin is testing the $80,000 level as retail wallets sell and larger holders accumulate during a 31% rally that began on Aug. 1. The divergence is a pattern on-chain analysts often track closely, because shifts in which wallet cohorts are buying or selling have historically coincided with major turning points in Bitcoin's market structure, even though such data describes behavior rather than predicting future prices.

On-chain analyst Ali Charts reported that wallets holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC posted an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982 since Aug. 1, signaling sustained selling among that cohort. Meanwhile, analyst Darkfost placed Bitcoin's capital-weighted cost basis near $79,600, putting $80,000 at the center of Bitcoin's current test. As first shared on X, the data highlights the divergence between retail behavior and whale accumulation.

Retail Selling Meets Whale Buying

According to Ali Charts, Bitcoin climbed from $62,229 to $81,500 since Aug. 1. Over the course of that move, wallets holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC recorded an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982, with the data showing selling among that wallet group throughout the rally.

At the same time, wallets holding 100 or more BTC have been accumulating Bitcoin. Ali Charts characterized the activity as larger players buying BTC sold by retail holders. The figures provided do not state the amount accumulated by those larger wallets.

The Accumulation Trend Score is a Glassnode-derived metric that ranges from -1 to 1, where values near -1 indicate net distribution across a cohort and values near 1 indicate net accumulation. A reading of -0.982 for the 0.1–1 BTC cohort therefore reflects selling that was nearly uniform across that group during the rally. On-chain cohort data of this kind is inherently backward-looking: it records wallet balances on the blockchain but cannot identify who controls a given wallet or their motives.

Why the Analyst Focuses on $80,000

Darkfost said several technical and on-chain levels have converged around $80,000 as Bitcoin attempts to break out of the bear market. He also noted that realized price has become less relevant because of the amount of illiquid supply.

Realized price is a widely used on-chain measure that values Bitcoin's supply at the price at which each coin last moved, effectively approximating the aggregate cost basis of the market. Levels near realized price are often watched as areas where large shares of holders are near breakeven, which can coincide with shifts in selling pressure.

Bitcoin's market capitalization has continued to increase, reaching $1.75 trillion at the cycle's peak. Darkfost said this change requires a different approach when adjusting the realized price.

He explained that BTC bought more than 10 years ago now represents a smaller share of capitalization, and that supply is considered illiquid compared with BTC bought more recently. Coins acquired years ago at far lower prices, much of it held by long-term holders, can distort the standard realized price calculation by locking in outdated cost assumptions, which is why analysts like Darkfost apply capital-weighted adjustments.

Capital-Weighted Cost Basis Nears $79,600

Darkfost adjusted realized price using a capital factor tied to invested capital, a calculation that produced a cost basis of about $79,600. He identified this level as the area where average invested capital reaches neutrality.

That places the $80,000 level close to the adjusted cost basis, and Bitcoin is currently struggling around this zone, according to Darkfost. He said a daily close above $80,000, followed by a weekly close above it, would return a large portion of capital to profit.

For readers tracking what comes next, the markers Darkfost outlined are concrete: a daily close above $80,000 and then a weekly close above the same level, which he said would shift a large portion of invested capital back into profit. Sustained trading below the adjusted cost basis, by contrast, would leave average invested capital underwater — the outcome the current test is centered on.