Bitcoin's share of circulating supply held at a profit has fallen to 53.8% after briefly exceeding 60%, leaving the metric near its 50% neutrality threshold and underscoring persistent investor uncertainty, according to analyst Darkfost (post on X).

The measure tracks the share of coins whose on-chain acquisition price sits below the current market price, which is why the 50% line acts as a dividing point between a market where most holders are in gain and one where most are not. Readings that drift close to that threshold are therefore often treated as a gauge of how broadly confidence is holding across the holder base.

The softening profit reading coincided with volatile spot-market flows between October 9 and 21, when outflows neared $90 million around October 15 and Bitcoin's price swung between roughly $79,400 and $85,000. The asset recovered toward $83,000 by October 20 as inflows topped $60 million, even as renewed selling pressure emerged on October 21.

Darkfost: Profitable Supply Hovering Near Neutral

Darkfost said the modest recovery in profitability has not yet given enough confidence to push prices higher. To better reflect the current, less liquid market, the analysis excludes Bitcoin held for more than 10 years.

According to the analyst, the share of supply in profit often fluctuates around 50% during uncertain market conditions. Once a capitulation phase drives that share below 40%, regaining ground above the neutrality threshold can take time, as both investor confidence and new demand need time to rebuild.

The current reading of 53.8% follows a brief rise above 60%, leaving the indicator close to its neutral range — a position that, on Darkfost's framing, makes the gap above the 50% line the reference point for gauging whether holder confidence is actually rebuilding.

Spot Flows Show Sharp October Swings

An hourly chart of Bitcoin spot inflows and outflows tracks capital movements alongside price from October 9 through October 21, with green bars representing positive netflows, red bars showing negative netflows, and a yellow line marking Bitcoin's price.

Netflow data of this kind is commonly read as a gauge of short-term trading pressure — inflows pointing to coins moving onto exchanges, outflows to coins being withdrawn — which is why the alternating green and red stretches in the chart frame the period's uneven trading tone.

Between October 9 and 11, Bitcoin climbed from around $81,500 toward $83,000 as several positive netflows exceeded $30 million. The price then approached $84,200 on October 11–12 before retreating.

Selling pressure intensified from October 12 through 15. Several negative netflows dipped below $30 million, and the largest visible outflow approached $90 million around October 15. Bitcoin subsequently slid toward $80,000–$81,000.

Recovery Toward $83,000 Amid Mixed Flows

From October 16 to 18, Bitcoin traded mainly between $81,000 and $82,000 as inflows and outflows alternated. Positive netflow spikes above $60 million then appeared between October 18 and 20, coinciding with a recovery toward $82,500–$83,000.

Selling pressure remained visible on October 21, when another outflow approached $30 million. Bitcoin's climb back toward $83,000 therefore unfolded against inconsistent exchange-flow readings.

Taken together, the two datasets give readers a compact scoreboard for the uncertainty Darkfost describes: whether supply in profit can hold above the 50% neutrality line, and whether spot netflows settle into a steadier direction, will show how the confidence-and-demand rebuild he references is actually progressing.

Overall, the chart places the observed price range between approximately $79,400 and $85,000, recording continued fluctuations in capital flows alongside price movements throughout the period.