Supply Absorption Emerges as Key Question as Bitcoin Fails to Reclaim $80,000
Key Takeaways
- •CryptoQuant said all Bitcoin holder cohorts are now in profit on aggregate, which may create resistance to further gains.
- •The spent output profit ratio climbed to 1.48 on Aug. 22, showing more on-chain activity from coins being spent at a profit.
- •The Coinbase premium remained negative at -0.015, indicating that U.S. investor demand has not fully recovered.
- •Bitcoin briefly moved above $78,500, but the market has still been unable to sustain a move above $80,000.
- •CryptoQuant said sustained inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs could help absorb selling from profitable holders.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains sensitive to sell-side pressure at the $80,000 level, a round-number threshold that carries psychological weight for traders, even as investors broadly avoid mass profit-taking, according to on-chain data.
Fresh figures from analytics platform CryptoQuant indicate that investors' unrealized profit and loss has crossed above zero for all cohorts, a development that has apparently slowed price momentum. Long-term holders saw a spike in profitability to 1.48, while short-term holders still account for the majority of in-profit coins moving on-chain. The Coinbase premium, meanwhile, has failed to return to positive territory at -0.015, underscoring lackluster demand from US investors.
Older Bitcoin investors reactivate around 14-week highs
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that older coins in particular moved on-chain as BTC/USD gained more than 25% over the past week.
The spent output profit ratio (SOPR), defined as the ratio of the current value of recently spent UTXOs to their value at creation, ticked up to 1.48 on Aug. 22, indicating increased on-chain activity involving in-profit coins. A SOPR reading above 1 means the coins being spent are, on average, changing hands in profit, while readings below 1 point to net realized losses across the market.
As price consolidated around $79,500, the so-called SOPR ratio, which divides the SOPR of short-term holders (STH) by that of long-term holders (LTHs), hit 1.4, its highest reading since July 25. STH and LTH refer to wallets that hold BTC without selling for up to six months (STH) or for longer than six months (LTH).
"This suggests long-term holders were realizing profits at a higher relative rate than short-term holders. The ratio has since fallen to 0.93, indicating that short-term holders' realized performance is now relatively stronger," CryptoQuant commented in a blog post on Tuesday.
The SOPR ratio has formed a broad downtrend since early 2025, and at the end of June hit 0.62, its lowest level in three years, as BTC/USD dropped to $58,000. Despite only reversing modestly higher since then, price has still failed to stay above $80,000.
CryptoQuant notes that all holder cohorts are now in profit on aggregate, presenting a potential hurdle to further gains that only sustained buyer support could overcome.
"The key question is not whether Bitcoin can briefly touch $80,000, but whether new demand can absorb selling from profitable holders," the firm summarized, suggesting that such demand could come from the ongoing return of inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Those funds launched in January 2024 and hold Bitcoin directly, so sustained inflows translate into purchases of the underlying asset — a structure that has made the ETFs one of the most closely watched demand channels in the market since their debut.
US investor demand remains weak
Other data suggests that, in spite of hitting local highs, Bitcoin has not yet convinced the broader investor base to return to the market.
The Coinbase premium — the difference in price between Coinbase's and Binance's BTC/USDT pairs — remains negative, moving above its zero line only briefly on hourly time frames as price broke above $78,500, according to CryptoQuant data.
"The next key signal will be whether the index can cross above zero and remain positive. If Bitcoin continues recovering while the Coinbase premium turns positive, the market could shift from 'selling pressure is easing' to a stronger phase of renewed U.S. spot demand," CryptoQuant analysis stated this week.
The Coinbase premium, which reflects US investor demand, has been broadly negative throughout 2026. As of Wednesday, it measured -0.015, up from -0.094 at the start of August.