Bitcoin spot trading volumes on major exchanges have recovered modestly since July, but analyst Darkfost says demand remains insufficient for a decisive move toward new highs. Binance, Bybit, and Kraken each recorded higher September volumes than July, while Bitcoin's exchange flows swung sharply between inflows and outflows as the price recovered toward $86,000.

Spot activity hit its weakest point in nearly three years in July, coinciding with Bitcoin's price low. Trading has since improved gradually, though volumes have yet to regain decisive strength, according to the analyst.

Spot Volumes Recover From July Lows

In an X post, Darkfost said Bitcoin spot volumes fell to their lowest level since the previous bear market in July. The decline coincided with Bitcoin printing its low, marking the weakest trading interest in nearly three years.

Spot volumes track direct purchases and sales of bitcoin itself, rather than leveraged derivatives positions, which is why analysts treat them as a gauge of underlying demand. Since then, activity has picked up slightly. Binance recorded more than $50 billion in September spot volume, up from $42 billion in July. Bybit's volume rose from $14 billion to $19 billion over the same period, while Kraken doubled its volume, climbing from $4 billion in July to $8 billion in September. According to Darkfost, these were the highest volumes among major exchanges, and the increase accompanied renewed momentum in Bitcoin's price.

Exchange Flows Show Sharp Swings

Bitcoin's spot netflows also fluctuated significantly between September 23 and October 5, per Coinglass spot inflow and outflow data. Netflow measures the balance of bitcoin deposited to exchange wallets against bitcoin withdrawn from them, a metric traders monitor for shifts in how coins are being positioned. A negative netflow of roughly $175 million appeared on September 23, followed by another negative reading near $100 million.

Positive flows then emerged on September 25, reaching approximately $100 million, and another positive reading approached $70 million on September 28. The strongest positive spikes came around September 30 and October 2, reaching roughly $165 million to $175 million. Yet October 2 also recorded a negative flow near $155 million, highlighting substantial movement in both directions.

Bitcoin Price Holds Near $86,000

Bitcoin climbed from the 82,000–83,000 region toward $87,000 before retreating to near $85,000. It then recovered toward $86,000, with the latest price sitting around $86,000–86,500. Recent netflow bars have also become smaller than earlier readings.

Darkfost said spot volume and demand must accelerate for Bitcoin to attempt new highs. On the chart, $85,000 represents near-term support, while $87,000 remains the level to reclaim. A sustained move below $,000 could expose the 82,000–83,000 region. For now, the setup leaves traders watching whether October volumes build on September's gains, whether the sharp netflow swings continue to narrow, and how price behaves at the $85,000 and $87,000 levels Darkfost flagged.