Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure as spot selling overtakes buying on Binance and Coinbase, weakening support around the $75,000 level. According to analyst Darkfost, only 30% of invested Bitcoin capital remains profitable, while roughly $756 billion of invested capital is underwater. Analytics firm Glassnode, meanwhile, reported rising open interest and renewed long positioning, and noted that Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has climbed to 0.80 over the past 30 sessions. Taken together, the readings describe a market in which most recent buyers are underwater, leverage is building, and Bitcoin is moving far more in step with equities than it typically has since 2020.

Heavy Unrealized Losses Around $75,000

According to Darkfost's analysis, approximately $26 billion in Bitcoin changed hands around current price levels, with the bulk of invested capital concentrated between $75,000 and $85,000. At current prices, only 30% of invested capital remains profitable — roughly $328 billion — while approximately $756 billion is at a loss.

Cost-basis clusters like this one carry weight in on-chain analysis because they mark the price zones where large groups of holders break even, and such zones are commonly treated as reference points for support and resistance. The concentration above $75,000 is why the integrity of this level matters so much to the current market structure.

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain support above $75,000. Comparatively little capital changed hands between $75,000 and $70,000, and Darkfost identified $70,000 as the next potential support level should sellers break below the current one.

Spot Selling Reverses on Binance and Coinbase

Spot market data shows a sharp shift in trading activity. According to the reported analysis, sell volume now exceeds buying volume on both Binance and Coinbase, two of the largest crypto exchanges by spot volume whose order flow is widely used as a gauge of outright demand — a reversal that follows a period of strong buying during the late summer.

At the end of August, the 30-day spot net volume delta, a measure of the balance between buy and sell volume, reached $64.8 million on Binance and $64.3 million on Coinbase. Buying continued into September as Bitcoin climbed from $63,000 to $85,000. Yesterday, however, the readings fell to negative $28 million on Binance and negative $9.4 million on Coinbase.

Coinbase recorded the reversal in October, while Binance maintained positive net spot volume for longer. The latest sell-off also coincided with midterm election volatility: Bitcoin dropped 5.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 4.3% and 6.3%, respectively.

Glassnode Reports Rising Leverage and Equity Correlation

Glassnode reported that Bitcoin open interest — the total notional value of outstanding derivatives positions — increased by approximately $1 billion during the US-session sell-off, then added another $500 million during the following US session. Funding rates initially cooled before rising again, and the firm also observed renewed long positioning. Rising open interest mechanically reflects new contracts being opened rather than existing ones closed, while funding rates, the periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders in perpetual futures markets, are read as a gauge of leverage demand.

In a further sign of tightening ties with traditional markets, Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 reached 0.80 across the last 30 US trading sessions. Since 2020, that correlation has generally remained much lower. On a scale where 1.0 denotes perfectly synchronized moves, a reading of 0.80 marks a sharp convergence with equities by historical standards.

For observers tracking how the sell-off develops, the concrete markers are whether spot net volume deltas on the two exchanges return to positive territory, whether the $70,000 level Darkfost flagged comes into play, and whether open interest, funding rates, and the equity correlation continue to build from current readings.