Bitcoin remained under pressure on Nov. 7 after falling below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), with BTC changing hands near $76,000 as investors weighed rising Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations against persistent withdrawals from spot exchange-traded funds.

The cryptocurrency has retreated roughly 13% from its October high near $87,300. The latest weakness followed stronger-than-expected U.S. employment figures and continued institutional fund outflows.

Fed Rate-Hike Odds Surge to 99% After Strong Jobs Report

Bitcoin has slid into a correction after dropping more than 13% from its October peak — a retreat that has coincided with mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December meeting.

The probability of another hike climbed after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov) released its October employment report on Nov. 6. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added 165,000 jobs in October. September's payroll gain was revised upward to 60,000 from the previously reported 29,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% from 4.2%.

The firmer employment data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise borrowing costs again in December, though the decision will also depend on inflation trends and other economic indicators. According to prediction platform Polymarket, odds that the Fed will hike interest rates jumped to 99% after the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Bitcoin and other risky assets have tended to underperform whenever the Fed is hiking rates or signaling that it will. The December policy meeting now stands as the next major checkpoint on the macro calendar, with the outcome hinging on the inflation and economic data released in the interim.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Accelerate After Democratic Sweep

Selling pressure has intensified as investors reduce their crypto exposure following the Democrats' victories in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Data shows spot Bitcoin ETF outflows jumped this week, with $411 million leaving the funds on Friday after $430 million flowed out the day earlier.

The products have now recorded $1.2 billion in outflows this month, after shedding $515 million in October. Before that stretch, the funds added $2.6 billion in September and $3.5 billion in October.

Spot ETF flows are among the most closely followed gauges of institutional participation in bitcoin, since the products hold the underlying coins on behalf of shareholders. With this month's tally already negative, the daily flow reports leading up to the Fed's December meeting will be watched to see whether the redemption streak persists.

Democratic control of both chambers of Congress has raised several concerns for the industry. Senator Elizabeth Warren, one of the crypto sector's most prominent critics, will lead the powerful Senate Banking Committee, making an industry investigation a distinct possibility. Another risk is that the CLARITY Act will fail to pass the Senate and be signed into law by President Donald Trump. The bill would have streamlined the industry by giving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) greater power to regulate it, positioning it as the second landmark crypto bill after the GENIUS Act, which focused on stablecoins. How the committee's oversight agenda takes shape, and whether the CLARITY Act can still advance, will be key Washington developments for the industry to track.

On the positive side, Bitcoin has historically shrugged off partisan shifts in Washington, having jumped to several all-time highs while Joe Biden was in the White House.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Technical Analysis

The daily chart shows the BTC price has slumped over the past few weeks, falling from a high of $87,300 to the current $76,043. Most notably, the coin has dropped below the important 200-day EMA. The 200-day EMA is a long-term trend indicator that traders use to judge whether an asset is in a bullish or bearish phase, which is why crossings of that line tend to draw outsized attention. Trading below that level is a sign that bears have prevailed, and there is a risk that the coin drops further in the near term.

If the decline extends, the next important level to watch is $72,660, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A move back above the 200-day EMA would invalidate the bearish outlook.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial risks, and technical projections do not guarantee future returns.

Source: The Market Periodical