An in-line U.S. inflation print for July removed a tail risk for markets but gave Bitcoin little impetus to rally, leaving traders focused on the Jackson Hole symposium, upcoming jobs data, and the next CPI release as the next likely catalysts.

Bitcoin slipped to approximately $63,500 on Thursday, declining over half a percent on the day and nearly 2% on the week. An in-line U.S. inflation report proved sufficient to calm investor nerves but fell short of triggering a broader crypto market rally, with most major tokens ending the day lower.

July CPI Matches expectations

July's inflation figures landed almost exactly where economists had forecast. Headline inflation rose 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year. The core measure, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% and eased to an annual rate of 2.5%.

The data was enough to trim the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, which futures markets reduced to roughly 38% from 46% before the release. Gold rose 1.3% in the immediate aftermath, ether gained just over 1%, bitcoin ticked up around half a percent, and S&P 500 futures added 0.2%. The muted crypto response underscores a recurring pattern this cycle: digital assets have become increasingly sensitive to shifts in monetary policy expectations, with Bitcoin often trading in lockstep with rate-sensitive risk assets rather than as an independent inflation hedge.

Gabe Selby, head of research at CF Benchmarks, told CoinDesk that Bitcoin tends to move most sharply when inflation data forces a reassessment of the rate outlook. He noted that BTC gained an average of 3.25% across the three occasions in the past nine releases when inflation came in below expectations, with a downside surprise on July 14 followed by a 4.24% rally.

"An in-line report can remove a tail risk," Selby said. "It takes a genuine surprise to create a catalyst."

Selby further sees room for the Federal Reserve to remain patient, pointing to shelter costs rising just 0.1%, energy declining 1.5%, and gasoline falling 2.9%, along with some goods categories now lapping last year's tariff-driven price increases.

Broad crypto market mostly lower

Among major digital assets, Hyperliquid's HYPE was the standout performer, climbing over 3% to $56, though it remained flat for the week. Tron added marginally to just under 34 cents and is up 2% over seven days. Nearly every other major token declined. Dogecoin dropped almost 3% to 7 cents, XRP fell over 1% to $1 and is down nearly 5% on the week, BNB slipped over 1% to $610, solana declined under 1% to $76, and ether edged marginally lower to $1,880.

Equities outperform crypto

Global stock markets reacted more positively to the inflation data than crypto. MSCI's Asia Pacific index rose nearly 1%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix serving as the biggest contributors. Korea's Kospi rallied almost 4%, entering a technical bull market after rising 22% in just ten days.

The mood was not uniform across equities, however. Cisco fell over 4% in after-hours trading on underwhelming earnings, and Cerebras Systems dropped 17% on declining hardware sales.

Oil retreats amid geopolitical tension

Brent crude snapped a six-day streak of gains, easing after a run that had pushed prices to $90 a barrel. The pullback came as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser General Mohammad Reza Naqdi stated that Iran was preparing to carry out operations on U.S. soil under a new military doctrine.

Next catalysts on the horizon

With the July CPI now behind them, market participants are looking ahead to several key events: the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers later this month, the September 4 jobs report, and the September 11 inflation release. The annual Jackson Hole symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Wyoming, has historically served as a platform for Fed chairs to signal upcoming policy shifts, and traders will be watching closely for any commentary on the pace and timing of future rate decisions.

Source: CoinDesk