Bitcoin Seeks Support Above $81K as Brent Crude Oil Hits Highest Level Since March
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin dipped to an intraday low of $80,988 shortly after the Wall Street open before recovering to roughly $81,600, remaining about 0.2% below its 50-day simple moving average at $81,781.
- •Brent crude climbed nearly 3% to $116 per barrel, its highest level since March 19, and WTI crude surpassed $102, driven by concerns the United States could renew military strikes on Iran around the midterm elections.
- •US equities opened lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.4%, the S&P 500 down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.2%, while the 10-year Treasury yield stayed below 5% after touching 4.939%, its lowest since Sept. 23.
- •Economist Robin Brooks noted an unprecedented decoupling between rising oil prices and Persian Gulf flows approaching pre-war levels, describing markets as pricing in a huge risk premium.
- •Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan warned that failure to reclaim the 50-day moving average by the daily close could lead to a support test in the $78,000-$80,000 range, with the $80,000-$81,500 zone marking the aggregate cost basis for spot Bitcoin ETF investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $81,000 shortly after Friday's Wall Street open as Brent crude oil climbed to its highest level in seven months, with traders weighing equity weakness against fresh geopolitical risk.
The leading cryptocurrency briefly dipped under the $81,000 mark at the start of the United States trading session as stocks drifted lower and the 10-year US Treasury yield held below 5%. Attention then turned to whether BTC could recover its 50-day simple moving average, which sits at $81,781 and is widely watched as a gauge of short-term trend direction.
Stocks slide, yields cool as oil surges
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling to $80,988 before recovering to around $81,600 at the time of writing.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
US equities opened lower as concerns over AI-sector spending coincided with a surge in oil prices driven by tensions surrounding the US-Iran war. The S&P 500 was down 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index 0.2% lower at the time of writing, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.4%.
Risk aversion kept the 10-year US bond yield below 5%. On Thursday, the yield touched 4.939%, its lowest level since Sept. 23. Government bonds typically attract demand when investors step back from riskier assets, with falling yields signaling that preference for safety.
Oil was the session's standout mover. Concerns that the United States could renew military strikes on Iran around the midterm elections pushed WTI crude past $102 per barrel on Friday, its highest level since Sept. 16. Brent crude posted an even sharper gain of nearly 3%, reaching $116 per barrel for the first time since March 19. Energy prices feed into inflation readings, making crude's trajectory a closely tracked input for interest-rate expectations across traditional markets.
CFDs on Brent crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Economist Robin Brooks observed that prices were rising even as oil flows through the Persian Gulf approached pre-war levels for many nations, while Saudi Arabia surpassed its pre-war average. "Since the start of the war, we've not seen this kind of decoupling between prices and flows," he wrote in same-day analysis, describing markets as pricing in a "huge risk premium."
Persian Gulf oil-transit volumes (screenshot). Source: Robin Brooks on Substack.com
BTC eyes the 50-day trend line
Commenting on lower-timeframe price action, Keith Alan, cofounder of crypto trading platform Material Indicators, flagged the possibility of retests of lower support. BTC/USD had fallen below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $81,781, with bulls attempting to reclaim the level by the daily close. At around $81,600, spot was about 0.2% below the SMA at the time of writing, keeping the level in play heading into the daily close.
"If they fail to do so by tonight's close, I'm looking for a support test in the $78k - $80k range," he told followers on X.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Cointelegraph previously reported substantial BTC price support between $80,000 and $81,500, an area that hosts the aggregate cost basis — the average price paid — for investors in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which hold Bitcoin directly on behalf of shareholders.
This article was originally published by Cointelegraph.
