Bitcoin (BTC) returned below $77,000 after Monday's Wall Street open, as crypto markets shrugged off hopes of a diplomatic resolution between the United States and Iran and attention turned to corporate earnings and the US midterm elections.

Key points:

• BTC dropped below $78,000 as WTI crude oil touched $95.15 per barrel, its lowest since Oct. 15.
• Gold extended daily gains to 2%, rebounding from 13-month lows of $3,891 per troy ounce after a US stock sell-off on the back of tech earnings data.
• Analysis by Rekt Capital warned that BTC price action failed to break beyond $78,500, opening the door to levels below $76,000 next.

Bitcoin falls as earnings, US midterms overshadow Iran peace hopes

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD extending daily losses to 1.7%, after reaching a local high of $78,750 following Sunday's weekly close.

Comments on Iran from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sparked a sharp retreat in oil prices as markets priced in higher odds of a non-military resolution. Previously, President Donald Trump had suggested that military strikes could return around the US midterm elections on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters, Rubio said Trump would like to end the conflict "diplomatically."

"He hasn't made a decision… what the president expresses to you is incredible confidence that if we needed to do something militarily, we would have the ability to do it, and we really we have everything we need to be successful. But we would prefer to do it peacefully," Rubio said, according to CNBC. The comments came as Washington signaled it would prefer a negotiated outcome.

Oil had been a key driver of macro volatility in recent weeks. US WTI crude oil was down over 7% on the day at the time of writing, near $96.50 per barrel, after touching $95.15, its lowest level since Oct. 15. Brent crude traded 9% lower at around $103.30.

US stocks opened higher as traders reacted to the news, but upside for both the S\u0026P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was soon tempered ahead of third-quarter earnings reports from Apple and Palantir. Last week, earnings figures and Q4 projections sparked downside volatility across risk assets and precious metals as fears over AI expenditure returned to the fore. The reports were therefore a near-term test for whether renewed concerns over AI spending would continue to weigh on technology shares and other risk assets. At the time of writing, the Nasdaq Composite Index was around 0.2% higher on the day.

Gold, meanwhile, held on to its 2% daily gains more tenaciously, rebounding past $3,950 per ounce after hitting 13-month lows of $3,891 on Friday.

Economist Robin Brooks forecast gold rising further as oil prices continue to fall, even after an initial market reaction in the event that military action returns to Iran.

"The recent drop in gold below 4,000 is entirely about the spike in oil prices we've had since the attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline on Sep. 10," he wrote in a blog post, referencing strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure.

BTC price analysis sees $76,000 returning

Analyzing BTC price action on low time frames, crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that BTC/USD could still fall below local support at $76,000 in the near term. The three-day chart showed that the pair had attempted, unsuccessfully, to break through horizontal resistance at $78,500.

"Indeed, the 3-Day bearish retest was successful and price could very well go below ~$76000," he told X followers on Monday.

In its latest analysis, trading company QCP Capital noted that the zone between $76,000 and $76,600 had sparked an upward reversal four times since September, adding that BTC had been consolidating between the two zones in recent sessions.

"BTC sits between the 76,000–76,600 support band and 79,500–80,500 resistance. A daily close back above $79,500 would recover the band lost on Thursday," it summarized. "A break of support would bring the 50-week average near $75,700 into view, with the 200-day near $73,100 below that." The levels identified by QCP Capital define the immediate technical range to watch as markets digest the upcoming earnings and political developments.