Bitcoin's slide below $73,000 reflects rising Federal Reserve rate expectations rather than the recent Binance hack, according to Coinbase Institutional's latest weekly market commentary. The report links the sell-off to stronger October economic data, a contracting stablecoin supply, and sustained withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Coinbase warned that continued weakness below $73,000 could expose Bitcoin to a decline toward 66,000–68,000.

Strong Economic Data Lifts Rate Expectations

October nonfarm payrolls — a key gauge of U.S. labor market strength — increased by 165,000, far exceeding forecasts of 65,000. August and September figures also received upward revisions totaling 84,000. Meanwhile, unemployment fell to 4.1%, against expectations of 4.2%.

October headline CPI rose 0.4% month over month, while core inflation increased 0.3%, with both readings exceeding consensus estimates by 0.1 percentage point. Consequently, futures markets now fully price a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Fed's December meeting, along with roughly 64 basis points of increases over the next 12 months — up from 37 basis points priced earlier. Because Bitcoin yields no cash flow, its relative appeal tends to move with the return available on cash-like instruments, which is why repriced rate expectations can pressure the asset even absent crypto-specific shocks.

Bitcoin subsequently fell below $72,000 on November 12. Coinbase also cited a stronger U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions, and diminished expectations for U.S. crypto legislation as additional pressures on the market.

ETF Outflows and Stablecoin Contraction Add Pressure

Fund flows have added to the pressure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.44 billion in net outflows across five trading sessions through November 11, while BlackRock's IBIT extended its withdrawal streak to nine consecutive sessions. Net outflows of this kind mean withdrawals exceeded new investment, pulling Bitcoin out of fund holdings.

Coinbase estimates that ETF holders collectively face approximately $12.7 billion in unrealized losses. Their average purchase price stands near $81,300, roughly 12% above current levels.

Stablecoin supply also contracted by $11.5 billion over the past 30 days, its largest recorded decline. For comparison, approximately $9.2 billion exited the market after TerraUSD collapsed in May 2022. The contraction matters because stablecoins function as the main trading and settlement currency on crypto venues, so a shrinking float means less capital held in crypto-ready form.

Additionally, Bitcoin's Coinbase premium averaged negative 0.13% over the past week. The metric, which tracks the price gap between Coinbase and other major venues, is widely used as a proxy for U.S. buying demand, and its negative reading points to weaker appetite among American investors.

$73,000 Support Faces Another Test

Coinbase identified 73,000–75,000 as a critical recovery zone, a band that includes the 200-day moving average near $73,100 — a long-term trend gauge closely watched by traders. Staying below this range, the firm said, raises the likelihood of a decline toward 66,000–68,000. That lower zone contains significant Bitcoin supply, cost-basis support, and the 200-week moving average.

The report also identified 80,000–82,000 as major resistance.

Separately, Strategy's average Bitcoin purchase cost stands near $75,500, above current spot levels. MSCI has confirmed the company's removal from its global indexes following the close of trading on November 30. The Fed's December meeting and that November 30 index change now stand as the market's next scheduled checkpoints.