Bitcoin was trading near $83,000 on Monday, down about 1.8% over 24 hours, as most of the 10 largest cryptocurrencies extended last week’s cooldown.

The move came after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipments. Brent crude rose back above $100 a barrel, while the dollar and Treasury yields also moved higher. Traders are now focused on Wednesday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report and Friday’s jobs data. CME FedWatch was pricing in roughly a 64% chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike on October 28.

Bitcoin opened the week at $84,455 and climbed as high as $84,972 in early trading as it attempted to break above $85,000. It then fell to $82,580 before settling near $82,933, a decline of roughly $1,523, or 1.8%, on the day.

The pullback remains relatively small compared with Bitcoin’s gains last month. The cryptocurrency spent much of the year in a pronounced bear trend before a sharp move in August and early September took its price from the mid-$,000s to above $80,000 within days. That breakout began a rally that carried Bitcoin to a high near $87,354 before the market entered its current consolidation phase.

Technical indicators remain supportive, according to the source data. Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average is above its 200-day moving average, forming a pattern known as a golden cross that has remained in place since the September breakout. A golden cross occurs when the average price over the past 50 days exceeds the average over the past 200 days.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of market momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, stood at 58.7. Readings below 30 are generally considered oversold, while readings above 70 are considered overbought. The current reading is below the overbought threshold.

The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength, was 43.2, above the 25 level commonly used to confirm a trend. Volatility was also increasing rather than subsiding. These indicators do not rule out a deeper decline, but the data described Monday’s move as a pullback within the existing trend rather than a confirmed reversal.

Oil, the dollar and the Federal Reserve

Trump’s rejection of Iran’s seven-day proposal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz was identified as a key market catalyst. Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel, followed by a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields. Those conditions can weigh on assets that do not generate yield, including Bitcoin and gold. Energy costs are among the components of economy-wide inflation gauges such as the PCE index, keeping this week’s data releases in focus for traders.

Most of the largest cryptocurrencies declined alongside Bitcoin. BNB was down 1.98% over 24 hours and 4.28% over seven days. Hyperliquid’s HYPE fell nearly 4% on the day and more than 6% over the week. Zcash and XRP were among the few weekly gainers, rising 3.61% and 1.26%, respectively, although both were lower on Monday.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at approximately $2.86 trillion, down 1.7% over 24 hours. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which runs from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), remained at 70, in the “greed” category, while the Altcoin Season Index, a measure of recent altcoin performance against Bitcoin, was 63, indicating a tilt toward altcoins without meeting the index’s full threshold for an altcoin season.

Derivatives activity remained elevated. Open interest stood at $382.29 billion, up 8.17%, while 24-hour derivatives volume increased 66.28% to $838.18 billion. Liquidations over the previous 24 hours totaled $478 million — forced closures of leveraged positions when margin can no longer support them — including $386.5 million in long positions and $87.95 million in short positions. The imbalance meant leveraged long positions accounted for most of the forced closures as prices declined.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which hold the asset directly rather than through futures contracts, remained net positive, extending a trend that began in mid-September. The continued inflows have kept institutional demand from falling sharply while Bitcoin’s price has consolidated.

Economic data ahead

Although the Federal Reserve does not have an immediate policy meeting scheduled, several data releases this week could influence expectations for its next decision. Tuesday’s calendar includes JOLTS job openings — the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, a monthly read on labor demand — with data available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wednesday brings the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Friday will bring the September employment report, listed on the BLS release schedule.

The releases come three weeks after the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023. On September 16, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously, 12-0, to raise the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%.

Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr has since said that additional tightening is likely to be necessary to return inflation to the central bank’s target. Higher interest rates can increase the appeal of cash and bonds relative to non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. They can also support the dollar and increase the cost of leveraged trading.

CME FedWatch was pricing in roughly a 64% chance of another quarter-point hike when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on October 27-28. That was down from the 75% probability traders had assigned several days earlier, but remained high enough to keep pressure on risk appetite ahead of the economic data.

Source: Decrypt

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.