Bitcoin is facing rising selling pressure after rebounding above $85,000, according to analyst Darkfost (X post), with the cryptocurrency's price hovering near key cost-basis levels. His analysis points to a potential increase in short-term selling pressure and draws comparisons with previous local market tops during the current cycle. Bitcoin's October 11 chart also shows weakening short-term momentum, with the price trading below its 50-day moving average.

• Darkfost identifies Bitcoin's $80,500 capital-weighted cost basis as a key support level, warning that uncertainty around this level could encourage more selling activity.
• Bitcoin's Seller Exhaustion indicator has entered a zone resembling levels seen at previous local tops, signaling potentially elevated selling pressure among short-term holders.
• BTC trades near $82,900 — below its 50-day moving average at $84,000 but above its 200-day average at $81,800 — leaving key support near $82,000.

Bitcoin Tests Its Capital-Weighted Cost Basis

Darkfost said Bitcoin is following a pattern similar to that of late 2025 and early 2026, with the cryptocurrency fluctuating around its capital-weighted cost basis, estimated at $80,500. Unlike realized price, this measure weights investors' cost basis by the amount of capital invested, which helps identify where investors collectively stand between profit and loss. Cost-basis levels of this kind are among the most closely watched gauges in on-chain analysis precisely because they mark the aggregate breakeven zone where holders' collective positions shift between profit and loss.

Darkfost described this zone as a support level that continues to hold. However, he noted that uncertainty around the level encourages investors to become more active.

Bitcoin's chart shows the price recovering from approximately $59,000–$61,000 in late May and early June, before consolidating between roughly $60,000 and $65,000 through July and mid-August.

Seller Exhaustion Indicator Points to Higher Pressure

Darkfost also reported that Bitcoin's selling pressure had intensified. His Seller Exhaustion indicator combines supply in profit with volatility, measured through returns, to identify periods of elevated or reduced risk. The indicator focuses on hypothetical selling pressure rather than actual realized selling — a distinction that matters when weighing the signal, since elevated readings flag risk conditions rather than confirmed sell-side volume.

Following Bitcoin's rebound above $85,000, the indicator entered a zone comparable to levels associated with local tops during the cycle. Darkfost noted that short-term holders (STHs) showed a particularly sudden change, adding that volatility declines over time, which makes the indicator's underlying dynamics more relevant than individual readings.

Bitcoin Trades Below Its 50-Day Average

Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged above $76,000 around August 18, accompanied by higher trading volume. The rally continued through September, when prices reached approximately $86,000–$87,000. By October 11, Bitcoin had retreated to around $82,900. Its 50-day moving average stood near $84,000, while its 200-day average remained around $81,800, meaning Bitcoin trades below its 50-day average but above its rising 200-day average. Both are widely used trend gauges, and the price's position between them captures the short-term momentum weakness Darkfost describes against a still-rising longer-term average.

The chart (Santiment) places immediate support around $81,800–$82,000, with lower support near $79,000–$80,000. Darkfost said demand would need to contain potential selling pressure for volatility to compress and for the indicator to normalize. In that framing, price behavior around the flagged levels — the $81,800–$82,000 support band, the $80,500 cost basis beneath it, and the 50-day average overhead near $84,000 — is what will show whether that containment is taking hold.