Bitcoin Prints a Second, Stronger Golden Cross Below Its $87,354 Swing High

Bitcoin is starting the week on the front foot. The top crypto asset traded around $86,100 on Monday morning, up 1.14% over 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.73 trillion. That leaves the price roughly $1,200 below the $87,354 swing high that has capped the rally, but the daily chart has now printed a second, stronger "golden cross." Macroeconomic winds have also turned in Bitcoin's favor, with several potential catalysts on this week's calendar.

Market Snapshot

The entire crypto market is $2.94 trillion, up 1.36% on the day. The Fear & Greed Index — a 0-100 gauge of crypto market sentiment — sits at 68, still in "greed" territory, with sentiment stabilizing after a dip from "extreme greed" readings last month.

The Weak Jobs Report That Moved Markets

The spark was Friday's U.S. jobs report — ugly for the economy, that is. U.S. employers added only 29,000 positions in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, roughly a third of what economists expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.

Revisions made it worse. July was revised from a gain of 21,000 jobs to a loss of 10,000, and August was cut from 162,000 to 133,000. Annual wage growth cooled to 3.0%.

Bad news for workers has been good news for risk assets — the unusual math of this cycle. The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 in a unanimous vote. A week before Friday's report, bond traders gave an October hike a 64% chance; after it, those odds fell to roughly 16%-22%, depending on the snapshot. In this setup, soft data lowers the odds of further tightening — and when traders expect rates to hold rather than rise, the yield on cash and bonds loses some of its pull against risk assets like bitcoin.

The reaction was the mirror image of last month. On September 4, a blowout August report sent Bitcoin sliding more than 2% to near $79,300 as hike bets rose. Bitcoin now trades about 8% above that level.

Stocks cheered too. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,722.72, up 0.73%, while the Nasdaq gained 1.19% to 27,190.86 and the Dow added 0.49% to 51,176.96. Nvidia hit a fresh record high, and stock futures edged higher on Sunday night.

Altcoins Mixed, ETF Flows Intact

Ethereum trades at $2,711, up 0.59%, and XRP is at $1.51, up 0.81%, while Solana slipped 0.91% to $120.31. All of the top 10 altcoins are in the green, though not a single one has moved more than 1% except Hyperliquid, which is up 3.68% on the day to $93.17 and 6% on the week.

ETF money is not fading either. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $189.84 million in net inflows on the latest daily reading, with total net assets at $101.1 billion, according to Decrypt data. Those funds, which give traditional investors bitcoin exposure through standard brokerage accounts, have turned daily flow readings into a widely watched gauge of institutional demand.

Bitcoin Price: Rejected at the Door, but Pushing Up With Force

The chart explains the hesitation. On the daily time frame, the $87,354 high remains the line to beat.

Momentum is strong. The Relative Strength Index, which scores recent gains against losses on a 0-100 scale where readings above 70 are considered overbought, sits at 64.7 — hot, but not extremely overbought. The Average Directional Index, which measures trend strength regardless of direction and reads above 25 as a strong trend, is at 43.4.

Exponential moving averages (EMAs) track the average price over a set number of days while giving more weight to recent days. A golden cross happens when a faster EMA climbs above a slower one. The chart already showed the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA — the classic version of a golden cross — a crossover that formed in mid-September as Bitcoin registered its second-best September performance ever.

But an even stronger sign has just appeared: the 100-day EMA has now also crossed above the 200-day EMA.

Why is the 100/200 cross even more significant? Because it is harder to fake. A sharp two-month bounce can drag the 50-day EMA over the 200-day line, but pulling the slower 100-day EMA above the 200-day requires the price to stay elevated for months. It means Bitcoin has not just bounced from the sub-$60,000 levels of July — it has rebuilt its medium-term trend.

Together, the two crosses mean the short-term and medium-term averages both sit above the long-term one — think of it as a second confirmation of the same story. The catch: EMAs lag, so a golden cross confirms a move that has already happened rather than predicting the next one.

Myriad Traders Lean Bullish on a Short-Term Push

On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are leaning bullish on a short-term push. In the October highs market, an $87,500 touch trades at 80%, $90,000 at 59%, $95,000 at 25%, and $100,000 at 12%. Those prices act as the market's implied odds — a contract quoted at 80% means traders assign an 80% probability to bitcoin touching that level this month.

What's Next on the Calendar

The week's calendar is short but loaded. The Fed releases the minutes of its September meeting on Wednesday, October 7, at 2:00 p.m. ET, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September CPI on October 14. The Fed's next policy meeting runs October 27-28, with a press conference on October 28 at 2:30 p.m. ET. The minutes will show how officials weighed the data behind September's decision, while CPI is a key inflation reading that can shift rate expectations the way the jobs report just did — which is why both stand out as potential catalysts for crypto and equities alike.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

Source: CryptoNewsNet