Bitcoin rose above $65,000 on Monday after a pause in US-Iran military exchanges over the weekend drove oil prices sharply lower and eased inflation concerns across global markets.

Brent crude fell more than 5% after Iran said it would stop retaliatory attacks if Washington halted further military action. The US also paused its bombing campaign, reducing fears of a broader conflict and lowering pressure on inflation expectations.

The softer inflation outlook weakened the US dollar, making cryptocurrencies more attractive to overseas buyers. Bitcoin recently traded around $65,405, up roughly 1.5% on the day. The move came as traders reassessed macro risks that can quickly feed into digital-asset markets through energy prices, inflation expectations, and interest-rate assumptions.

Analyst Ted Pillows said on social media that BTC was hovering near $64,500 and that a reclaim of $65,000 could send Bitcoin to new monthly highs.

$BTC is hovering around the $64,500 level. A reclaim of $65,000 could send Bitcoin to new monthly highs. pic.twitter.com/7yYj6yO9Yl — Ted (@TedPillows) July 26, 2026

Daan Crypto Trades said the key level for bulls to break is the local high from June/July near $67,000. He added that the 200-day moving average sits around $72,000–$73,000 as the next area to target, while high-timeframe support remains at the $60,000 range low.

$BTC These levels are still all you need. The level to break for the bulls is that local high from June/July at ~$67K. From there you can start targeting the daily 200MA/EMA coming in around the $72K-$73K area. On the downside, the high timeframe support to hold is that $60K… pic.twitter.com/IXWQ2PMX3C — Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 26, 2026

Federal Reserve Meeting in Focus

Markets are also focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, while markets currently price in about a one-in-three chance of a rate increase.

Traders will monitor comments from Chair Kevin Warsh for indications about policy direction through the rest of 2026. Higher interest rates can weigh on speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies by increasing the appeal of safer investments. Because Bitcoin often trades as a liquidity-sensitive asset, Fed guidance on inflation and rates remains a key input alongside geopolitical headlines.

Whale Activity and Exchange Supply

On-chain data added to the picture around Bitcoin’s latest move. Nearly 3,080 BTC, worth close to $198 million, left the Kraken exchange in two separate transfers. The coins were moved to unknown wallets, a pattern that often indicates long-term holding rather than immediate selling, though exchange outflows do not confirm the owner’s intent.

Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio climbed to 46,500, marking a 350% increase over 24 hours. The rise points to tighter supply conditions as fewer coins remain available on exchanges. Short-term jumps in on-chain metrics can be volatile, so traders typically watch whether these changes persist alongside price and volume.

Miner selling pressure also eased. The Miners’ Position Index dropped to -1.24, down more than 128% in one day. Negative readings indicate that miners are selling fewer coins relative to their one-year average, reducing another potential source of market supply.

At press time, Bitcoin was trading near $64,368 and remained above channel support around $63,824. Resistance was positioned at $66,835, with a larger barrier near $73,000. The RSI stood at 50.85, indicating cooled but not bearish momentum.

The key support level to watch remains $63,824. A move below that level could open the door to $60,000.