Bitcoin's recovery remains uneven as exchange reserves edge higher, spot demand loses momentum, and accumulation stays concentrated in a narrow set of holder groups, according to updated CryptoQuant charts reviewed in a new XWIN Japan column. The readings present mixed signals as the United States midterm elections approach. Exchange reserves, the split between spot and derivatives demand, and holder-cohort flows are among the on-chain metrics the column uses to gauge whether buying is broadening.

Low reserves, whale accumulation, and improving estimated demand still support the possibility of a base forming. The latest data, however, shows that buying strength is not yet consistent across the market. According to the column, a durable recovery would require positive spot demand, buyers absorbing exchange inflows, and accumulation spreading more widely. The three charts examined explain where support holds and where it weakens.

Exchange Reserves Edge Higher

Exchange reserves measure the amount of bitcoin (BTC) held on trading platforms. Because coins held on exchanges can be sold at any time, reserve levels are read as a gauge of how much supply sits ready to trade. The charts show reserves rising from roughly 2.67 million BTC in early October to around 2.68 million BTC. Despite the increase, reserves remain low compared with January. (Source: CryptoQuant)

Low reserves do not mean supply keeps shrinking. Transfers to exchanges may reflect custody changes rather than selling, so rising reserves alone do not prove that holders are selling. The increase is also modest and comes from a low base.

The supports identified in an earlier column remain in place, yet the recovery is uneven. That column, published six days earlier, listed low reserves among the signs of base building and focused on Bitcoin base formation ahead of the U.S. midterms. With reserves now rising, another condition carries added weight: a durable recovery requires buyers to absorb the BTC that returns to exchanges.

Spot Demand Loses Momentum

The 30-day demand chart shows spot demand approaching zero before turning negative again. Spot demand reflects direct BTC purchases, while perpetual futures demand comes from derivatives markets. Perpetual futures are derivative contracts rather than direct purchases of the asset, a distinction that matters when judging how durable demand is. Positive perpetual futures demand has continued to support the total demand figure, which means spot buying remains weaker than futures activity. (Source: CryptoQuant)

The earlier column cited improving estimated demand. This new breakdown differs from the Apparent Demand metric discussed previously, and the two sets of values are not directly comparable, so the readings should be viewed separately.

Sustained positive spot demand is one of three conditions for a durable Bitcoin recovery. Without it, futures demand carries the total figure. Positive spot readings would show buyers acting directly in the market.

Whale Cohorts Show Mixed Behavior

Holders of 100–1,000 BTC remain net accumulators over a 60-day window. Their buying sits below the late-September peak despite a modest rebound, and the cohort has kept purchasing throughout the past two months. (Source: CryptoQuant)

Net holding declines among the 1,000–10,000 BTC cohort have narrowed toward zero. Meanwhile, the cohort above 10,000 BTC remains negative.

This cohort-by-cohort view is how analysts distinguish broad accumulation from buying concentrated in a few holder groups. Accumulation is therefore not broad-based across holder groups, and a durable recovery also requires it to spread more widely. The rolling figures include pre-October activity and can reflect transfers between cohorts rather than pure accumulation.

Base-Building Conditions Remain

Conditions that could support a base still exist, according to the column. Expectations around the midterm elections and monetary policy must translate into actual buying. The key question is whether rallies gain a growing, lasting base of buyers. Future updates to these three readings — reserve levels, the 30-day spot demand line, and cohort flows — will show whether the required conditions are falling into place. Until then, the Bitcoin recovery depends on whether buying broadens beyond a single holder group.