Bitcoin has recovered toward $65,000 and reclaimed several long-term reference levels following its June-July correction, which arrived roughly two months after the April 2024 halving—a supply-reduction event that in prior cycles was followed by extended consolidation before a clearer trend emerged. The rebound now confronts a cost-basis barrier near $67,000, while elevated long positioning continues to pose the risk of another liquidation-driven selloff.

Key Takeaways

• A monthly close above the 50-month SMA would strengthen the case that a bottom has formed.
• The $61.5K cost basis serves as a market reference point, not guaranteed buy-side support.
• Coldcard-driven wallet activity should not be interpreted as fresh Bitcoin demand.
• A break below the June-July lows could transform leverage into additional selling pressure.

The $57.8K Floor

Bitcoin reached approximately $57,900 in June and returned to nearly the same level in July, when price declined to about $57,750. The two monthly lows were separated by only around $150.

August has thus far produced a different structure. The current monthly low sits near $62,200, more than $4,000 above the June-July floor. This higher low remains provisional until August closes, but downside follow-through has been more limited than in the prior two months.

Reclaiming the $61K Zone

Bitcoin's 50-month SMA currently sits near $60,800. The indicator is widely tracked as a long-term trend filter that has marked inflection points across multiple Bitcoin cycles. Price traded below it during the correction and has since moved back above the average. The lower boundary of the long-term rising channel runs through the same broad region.

A CryptoQuant analysis places the realized price of Binance user deposit addresses around $61,500. Bitcoin briefly fell below that level before recovering it.

The $61,500 figure represents a cost basis rather than visible buy-side liquidity. CryptoQuant notes, however, that recent moves below the area have been followed by relief buying.

With the cost basis and 50-month SMA sitting relatively close together, the $60,800–$61,500 region becomes an important area to monitor during any pullback. A monthly close above the 50-month SMA would strengthen the argument that the June-July lows marked the bottom of the correction.

Momentum continues to lag behind price. Monthly RSI remains around 44, below its neutral 50 level.

CryptoQuant's $67K Cost Basis: The Next Test

The same CryptoQuant analysis places the realized price of newer whales near $67,000. Unlike the 50-month SMA, this level is derived from on-chain cost-basis data rather than the monthly price chart. It represents the average acquisition price of CryptoQuant's newer-whale cohort, which the analysis says could generate selling pressure as those holders approach breakeven.

A sustained move above $67,000 would clear that cost-basis barrier and add weight to the recovery from the June-July lows. A rejection at that level would leave the rebound incomplete and refocus attention on the recently recovered support below current price.

Santiment's Wallet Spike Needs Context

Santiment reported 2.27 million newly created Bitcoin wallets over the latest week, its highest network-growth reading in a year. Around 751,000 wallets were active, the strongest level in 10 months.

Santiment links much of the increase to the Coldcard security incident, which prompted users to move Bitcoin and create fresh wallets. The episode also reignited custody questions examined in a related analysis of the Coldcard flaw and the Bitcoin wallet-versus-ETF debate.

Moving existing coins into newly generated wallets can inflate network growth and activity metrics without introducing new capital. The spike does not indicate that investors accumulated around the June-July lows. Network activity after the Coldcard-related transfers fade will offer a cleaner signal of whether usage genuinely remained elevated.

Leverage and Liquidation Risk

The $57,800 area held in both June and July, but leveraged positioning still leaves a path for another move lower.

Joao Wedson warned that $57,000 and below remains an area of concern, citing a current dominance of unliquidated long positions over shorts.

$57,000 and below still concerns me. Before Bitcoin formed its 2022 bottom, the market went through one final major liquidation event. Now we are once again seeing a clear dominance of unliquidated longs over shorts. These levels change constantly, so I strongly recommend… pic.twitter.com/ilUSJa1ZZc

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) August 8, 2026

His concern is that another sharp decline could force leveraged longs out of the market, adding mechanical selling pressure as Bitcoin approaches the same zone that halted the correction in June and July.

Wedson draws a comparison with Bitcoin's 2022 bottom, which was preceded by a major liquidation event. That historical parallel does not mean another final flush is required, but current leverage profiles still leave forced selling as a downside risk.

A decisive break below $57,750–$57,900 could therefore combine a technical breakdown with forced selling from leveraged longs. Below that floor, CryptoQuant places miner-related cost bases near $51,000 and long-term holder whale cost bases in the upper-$40,000 range. Neither is an immediate target; they become relevant only if Bitcoin first loses the reclaimed $60,800–$61,500 area and then breaks the June-July lows.

Methodology: The analysis combines the BTC/USD monthly chart, 50-month SMA, monthly RSI, and long-term trend structure with realized-cost-basis data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin network-growth and active-address data from Santiment, and liquidation-market observations cited from Joao Wedson. On-chain activity and liquidation positioning are used as supporting context rather than standalone confirmation of price direction.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and technical, on-chain, or derivatives signals can fail.

Source: Coindoo