Bitcoin is trading near $79,300 after reclaiming a key on-chain cost-basis level, according to analysis shared by analyst Ali Charts. The metric in question, the Warm Supply Realized Price, tracks the cost basis of BTC that last moved between one week and six months earlier. Two other analysts, CryptoBullet and Ted Pillow, have highlighted separate signals concerning Bitcoin's cycle position, spot demand and technical structure. Their comments came as Bitcoin tests resistance in the vicinity of the $80,000 area.

Four Prior Reclaims Preceded Rallies of 34% to 159%

In an X post, Ali Charts said four previous reclaims of the Warm Supply Realized Price were each followed by sizable Bitcoin rallies. The January 2023 reclaim preceded a 69% rise, while the October 2023 reclaim produced a gain of 159%. The October 2024 reclaim came before a 74% advance, and the April 2025 reclaim was followed by a 34% increase. These historical comparisons describe what followed earlier reclaims but do not establish that the current move will produce the same outcome.

A more cautious view has come from CryptoBullet, who said the bearish case remains open if the July 1 level of $57,750 marked the cycle bottom. He identified Oct. 4, Oct. 17 and Nov. 21 as dates that match earlier bear-market bottoms. CryptoBullet set Dec. 1 as his deadline for becoming fully bullish on the cycle.

Golden Cross Meets Declining Spot Demand

Ted Pillow reported that Bitcoin recently formed a golden cross on the daily timeframe, a pattern closely watched by technical traders. At the same time, he noted that spot demand is declining. According to Pillow, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 this year following a weekly close above $83,000.

Current market data places BTC at $79,300. Bitcoin recovered from the $77,700-$78,000 area after the Sept. 8-9 sell-off and remains below $80,000, where resistance is concentrated around $80,000-$81,000. Initial support sits near $78,000, with stronger protection appearing around $77,000-$77,700.

Momentum Indicators Improve Near $80K

A move above $79,300 would put $80,000 within reach, and a break above that level could bring the $81,000-$81,500 zone into focus. The relative strength index (RSI) reads 59.12, above its moving-average line at 49.80 and still below the 70 threshold generally viewed as overbought. The MACD has turned positive, with displayed values of 107.58 and 58.02, and its histogram has also moved into positive territory.

Spot flows have remained mixed in recent sessions. Continued inflows could support a recovery toward the $80,000-$82,000 range, while persistent outflows could expose support at $77,000 and, below that, $75,600. The combination of improving momentum, mixed spot flows and nearby resistance leaves those price levels central to the next phase of the setup.