Bitcoin climbed back above $77,500 on Thursday, and XRP led the largest cryptocurrencies higher, as traders scaled back bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September. Falling rate-hike expectations gave risky assets such as crypto a lift.

Bitcoin Reclaims $77,500 as Crypto Sentiment Improves

Bitcoin traded above $77,600 during Asian hours on Thursday, recovering from a 24-hour low near $76,400, CoinDesk reported. A live market snapshot later showed the coin near $78,538.

The $77,500 level matters because it sits just above where many recent buyers stepped in. Holding above it signals to traders that dip-buyers remain in control. Bitcoin was up about 2.3% over 24 hours in that snapshot.

Sentiment also brightened. The crypto Fear and Greed Index printed 65, a "Greed" reading. The gauge runs from 0 to 100, with higher numbers indicating investors feel more confident about taking risks.

The bounce marks a sharp shift in mood from earlier stretches when Bitcoin slipped ahead of a Fed decision. For someone holding Bitcoin on an exchange like Coinbase, the takeaway is straightforward: the coin recovered a key price shelf, but the mood can shift quickly.

XRP Leads Major Tokens in the Latest Risk-On Move

XRP, the token tied to payments company Ripple, led the largest cryptocurrencies, rising about 4.5% over 24 hours in the same market snapshot. That put XRP ahead of BNB at 4.3%, Solana at 3.5%, Bitcoin at 2.3%, and Ethereum at 1.5%. Ripple uses XRP in its cross-border payments business, and the token has historically traded as one of the higher-beta majors, meaning it tends to amplify broad market moves in both directions.

When smaller, more volatile coins outrun Bitcoin, it typically signals that traders are feeling bolder about risk. XRP's lead was the defining feature of the session, not a footnote. Broad, coin-by-coin gains of this kind often follow a macro trigger rather than a single project's own news. Big up days like this echo past moments when Bitcoin and Ethereum surged together.

Falling Fed Hike Odds Form the Macro Backdrop

The trigger was a shift in rate expectations. CoinDesk, citing the CME FedWatch tool, said the odds of a quarter-point hike on September 16, 2026 sat just above 62%, down from just above 67% a day earlier and about 37% a week before. The FedWatch tool derives those probabilities from pricing in fed funds futures markets, so the figures reflect how traders themselves are positioned rather than an official Fed forecast.

The mechanics matter for crypto. When the Fed raises rates, safer options like savings and bonds pay more, so money tends to leave riskier bets like Bitcoin. When hike odds fall, the opposite pull kicks in, and crypto often catches a bid. That link was clear when Bitcoin reacted to inflation relief in earlier sessions.

The policy backdrop remains hawkish, however. In his August 28, 2026 Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said the preferred PCE inflation measure stood at 3.7%, above the Fed's fixed 2% target. Jackson Hole is the Fed's annual economic symposium in Wyoming, where chairs have historically used the platform to signal policy direction.

Governor Michael Barr went further on September 1, 2026, saying the Fed should act decisively and raise rates at the September meeting if inflation does not moderate enough, according to his prepared remarks. A hike therefore remains very much on the table.

Independent voices agree the outcome is not settled. Research analyst Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) noted that the September meeting looks like a lean toward a hike rather than a done deal.

The next big test is the U.S. jobs report due September 4, 2026. A weak reading could push hike odds lower and support crypto; a strong one could do the reverse. For newcomers, the lesson is that crypto right now moves with Fed expectations, so watching the jobs data and the September 16 meeting matters as much as watching price charts.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making decisions.