Bitcoin climbed back to $65,000 on Tuesday for the first time in more than a week — the level was last reached on August 10 — as US stocks bounced and geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz eased slightly following comments from President Trump. The rebound came alongside fresh evidence that Bitcoin's extended drawdown may be maturing: VanEck researchers report that 8 of the 12 signals in their "Bitcoin Capitulation Check" are active, suggesting the cryptocurrency may be nearing an accumulation phase, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs — the funds approved in January 2024 that hold Bitcoin directly — recorded nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, their strongest single day since May 5. Analyst Aksel Kibar sees $76,000 as a potential upside target if the rebound holds, and long-term holders — a cohort typically defined as coins unmoved for at least 155 days — have shed roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days, taking their share of circulating supply below 60%.

Trump posted to Truth Social confirming that the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow Persian Gulf chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes — was "open and operating" and that all water mines had been removed or detonated. The S&P 500 rebounded from 7,696, its lowest point since August 4, helping risk assets recover. Oil prices stayed relatively calm, with WTI crude down 1% at around $84 per barrel. US 30-year bond yields, however, climbed to 5.34%, their highest level since January 2007. BNY Mellon analyst Geoff Yu said in a research note that investors are "demanding more compensation for inflation risk," with government borrowing also pushing yields higher.

ETF Inflows Signal Renewed Demand

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded just under $300 million in net inflows on Monday. That marked their strongest single day since May 5 and pointed to renewed institutional interest. Net inflows represent the balance of new money entering the funds minus money leaving them. First approved by US regulators in January 2024, the spot ETFs have since become one of the main channels through which institutional investors access Bitcoin exposure.

Separately, VanEck researchers — including Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel — published findings showing that 8 of the 12 signals in their "Bitcoin Capitulation Check" are currently active. All 12 signals have entered their capitulation zone at some point over the past three months. According to VanEck, the data suggests Bitcoin is "nearing or currently in an accumulation phase."

Analysts Eye $76,000 If the Rebound Holds

Trader and analyst Aksel Kibar flagged a potential reverse head-and-shoulders pattern — a chart formation traders often read as a possible bullish reversal setup — forming around the $62,300 level. He set a $76,000 upside target if the pattern holds, and a $53,000 downside target if it fails.

If $BTCUSD is going to rebound, it has to come from here. pic.twitter.com/qZFnfIZxCV

— Aksel Kibar, CMT (@TechCharts) August 16, 2026

Analyst Ted Pillows posted on X that Bitcoin is "very close to a breakout," adding that a four-hour candle close above $65,000 could push BTC to $68,000.

$BTC is very close to a breakout here. A 4H close above $65,000 could push Bitcoin to $68,000. pic.twitter.com/HLYaDUax93

— Ted (@TedPillows) August 18, 2026

Historical Context and Long-Term Holders

Bitcoin remains roughly 48% below its all-time high of $126,300, set in October 2025. The 50-month exponential moving average sits at $65,827 and is acting as near-term resistance.

VanEck noted that the three previous Bitcoin bear markets averaged 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown. Bitcoin is currently around 11 months from its October peak.

Long-term holders shed roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days, bringing their share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months. A total of 11.84 million BTC is now held long-term. Because long-term holders are the market's least active cohort — coins that sat untouched through the drawdown — shifts in their supply are widely tracked as a gauge of whether older hands are distributing or holding.