Bitcoin closed the week above its 50-week moving average (50W MA) — a long-term trend indicator calculated from the past 50 weeks of weekly closing prices — for the first time in 45 weeks, breaking through a technical level that has repeatedly acted as a ceiling during major Bitcoin bear markets.

The historical record surrounding such moves is striking: across 13 weekly reclaims of the 50W MA during completed Bitcoin bear markets, only two were followed by another lower low. That does not prove the current bear market is over, but it places Bitcoin at a historically important crossroads. The move also ended a streak of 45 consecutive weekly closes beneath the indicator. Weekly closes carry added weight in this kind of analysis because they reflect where the market settles after a full week of trading, filtering out the short-term noise that can distort daily charts.

Bitcoin Reclaims the 50-Week Moving Average After 45 Weeks

Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Research, highlighted the move on X on September 21, noting that Bitcoin had closed the week above its 50-week moving average. Thorn also pointed out that Bitcoin has gained 29% over the past 35 days, adding further significance to the latest weekly close.

🟠 BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS
regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are “in”
bitcoin is up 29% in 35 days
pic.twitter.com/HzKVUrxMVz

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) September 21, 2026

The full post is available on X.

In an earlier Galaxy Research analysis, Thorn described the 50W MA as a historical “bear market ceiling,” examining Bitcoin’s repeated failures to reclaim the level during major downturns.

The latest weekly close stands out because Bitcoin had spent 45 consecutive weeks without a weekly close above the 50W MA. While Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200W MA) has historically acted as a long-term bear-market floor, the 50W MA has often played the opposite role during major downturns, serving as resistance that Bitcoin struggled to overcome. Long-term moving averages are staples of technical analysis across traditional markets as well; the 200-day moving average, for instance, is a commonly cited trend gauge in equities.

No New Low Followed 11 of 13 Historical Reclaims

Galaxy Research previously examined how Bitcoin behaved after losing the 50W MA during five completed bear markets. Across the 106 weeks spanned by those bear markets, Bitcoin closed above the 50W MA just three times, all of them during the 2021–22 bear market.

Expanding the analysis to individual weekly reclaims produces 13 historical instances, and the results are notable. Five reclaims were the first after a bear-market low, and none was followed by a new lower low. Six additional reclaims occurred later during recoveries, after the market bottom had already been established. The remaining two took place before the final low during the 2021–22 bear market, and both subsequently failed.

In other words, Bitcoin did not make a new low after 11 of the 13 historical weekly reclaims of the 50W MA. That history does not establish a probability for the current cycle, but it shows that decisive weekly reclaims have generally been associated with a market moving beyond its bear-market lows.

The First Reclaim After a Bottom Was Usually the One That Mattered

The historical record carries more weight when viewed through the lens of the first reclaim after a bear-market low. In four of the five completed bear markets that lost the 50W MA, the first weekly reclaim after the eventual low proved to be the definitive one.

The exception came during the 2021–22 bear market, when Bitcoin reclaimed the 50W MA before making its final low and subsequently fell back below the level.

What the 50W MA Reclaim Means for Bitcoin

Historically, Bitcoin has rarely made a new low after reclaiming the 50W MA following a bear-market bottom. That does not confirm the current bottom is in. But if Bitcoin holds above the 50W MA on a weekly basis, the latest move would increasingly resemble the post-bottom reclaims seen in previous cycles. Until this week’s close, every weekly attempt to regain the level during the current drawdown had fallen short. Because the indicator is recalculated each week from the trailing 50 closes, the level itself will move in the weeks ahead, and upcoming weekly closes will show whether the reclaim holds.

For now, the 50W MA is shifting from long-standing resistance to a key level of potential support.